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The Disciplined Investor (Business)
TDI Podcast: Bitcoin Blasphemy (#860)
2024/03/17
Two more hot inflation reports – stickier than thought. What goes up – doesn’t have to come down – but often checks back. Tax season is here – a few friendly reminders Guest – Paul Barron – The Paul Barron Network Paul Barron is a technologist and futurist that has forecasted various major market […]
TDI Podcast: One Sided (#859)
2024/03/10
Markets moving – pros thinking about hedging – March is here and thinking about consolidation potential AI hype continues and continues… This week’s guest is Thomas Thornton – Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thomas Thornton is a former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst with Level Global Investors and Galileo Capital. Tom has written a daily […]
TDI Podcast: Tool Sharpening (#858)
2024/03/03
Info (Show/Hide)
Education and implementation of investing techniques. In this episode, we discuss the important aspects investing, best execution and enhancements to a really cool trading platform. This episode’s guest: Steve Sanders – EVP at Interactive Brokers. Steve Sanders is Executive Vice President of Marketing & Product Development at Interactive Brokers. In this capacity, he oversees all […]
TDI Podcast: An Options Primer (#857)
2024/02/25
No stopping a speeding freight train A rising tide raises all CHIPS – and boy did they rise Inflation still an issue and the Fed trying to talk markets down (Not working) Guest: Larry McMillan takes us through some interesting options strategies. Professional trader Lawrence G. McMillan is perhaps best known as the author of […]
TDI Podcast: The ETF Architect (#856)
2024/02/18
Inflation – Maybe Stagflation? Surging unprofitable stocks – a bit of déjà vu here AI fever rolls on (and on). After serving as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps, Dr. Gray earned an MBA and a PhD in finance from the University of Chicago where he studied under Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama. […]
TDI Podcast: Curzio’s Snappy Idea (#855)
2024/02/11
A banking crisis brewing? Say it aint so Fed’s trying to talk down rate cuts – Powell on 60 Minutes Looking like a pullback could be in the cards Guest, Frank Curzio – Curzio Research Frank Curzio can be reached by email at frank@curzioresearch.com Frank Curzio is an equity analyst with close to two […]
TDI Podcast: McClellan’s Tidal Forces (#854)
2024/02/04
January is in the books – and the results are mixed. The Fed gives and takes away – No cuts on the table just yet. Plenty of tech news this week – Earnings and more earnings. And our guest this week – Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report. Tom McClellan is a graduate of […]
TDI Podcast: PermaBear Knight (#853)
2024/01/28
US Economy humming along – better than expected – but calls for rate cuts continue. Is this the Year for Foreign? Not so fast says markets. Bitcoin – post ETF blues. This week’s guest – Tim Knight – a self proclaimed Permabear. Tim Knight has been charting and trading since 1987. His first stock […]
TDI Podcast: Ai-Ai-O (852)
2024/01/21
And on that server farm there was a chip – Ai-Ai-O Guests John Pugliano and Danielle Dimartino Booth are this week’s guest – talking about the only two things that seem to matter – The Fed and Ai. Follow @andrewhorowitz John Pugliano is the author of The Robots are Coming: A Human’s Survival Guide […]
TDI Podcast: Opportunistic Value (#851)
2024/01/14
CPI ticks up – PPI ticks down – never a dull moment. Earnings season is here – Banks reported and most hit the skids. Bitcoin ETF approved and Bitcoin gets whacked and we enter a holiday shortened week – get ready! Guest: Vitaliy Katsenelson explains value investing and what he looks for in great stocks. […]
TDI Podcast: Skate To The Puck (#850)
2024/01/07
Conflicting Data – but absolute certainty. What was in is out – a rotation at the start of the year. The 10-year Treasury tops 4% – for a moment – looking like a key resistance point. And our guest…Sam Burns of Mill Street Research. Sam Burns, CFA is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research […]
TDI Podcast: Parade of Guests 2023 (1)
2023/12/31
So many guests, such great insights – another year down and so much more ahead. Listen to some of the “Best Of” guests – Frank Curzio, Vitaliy Katsenelson, Thomas Thornton, Steve Leeb, Jason Raznick, Michael Covel, Dr. Richard Smith and many many more during these episodes. Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information […]
TDI Podcast: Success with Dress (#848)
2023/12/24
Late day drop then next day pop. Blame it on option traders – they say… All about year end positioning. Our Guest – Brian Dress -Left Brain Research. Brian has 15 years’ experience in the investments industry. Before joining Left Brain, he spent nearly a decade managing an independent portfolio of derivatives, focused mainly in […]
TDI Podcast: Meb Faber (#847)
2023/12/17
And all of a sudden – a Pivot and a rally to boot! The 10 year treasury is now – sub 4%. Oil hit technical support, bounces then stalls. Some thoughts on what is next with our guest today – Meb Faber – from Cambria Investment Management Mr. Faber is a co-founder and the Chief […]
TDI Podcast: Crosby on Liquid Happiness (#846)
2023/12/10
Consumers and investors are in the holiday mood. Goldilocks may be in the house Thinking about your brain on finance… A great topic to discuss with our Guest – Dr. Daniel Crosby – Chief Behavioral Officer with Orion. We talk about liquid happiness, measuring brain activity and more on Dunning-Kruger. Dr. Daniel Crosby, a behavioral […]
TDI Podcast: More Gains to Come? (#845)
2023/12/03
SHAZAAM! – A November to Remember! Powell tries to talk markets down – not happening. Yields and the USD collapse – good news for risk assets. And a look back at an amazing month …. Info Here. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on […]
TDI Podcast: The Replay (#844)
2023/11/26
Recap from the H&C Client Webinar. Q&A as well as a look back and look ahead. What’s in Store for 2024? Client Webinar Recap What is Driving Markets Federal Reserve Remains Restrictive Treasury Yields and Mortgage Rates TINA is Gone, TARA is In The Political Climate Both Here and Abroad The Economy – Running Out […]
TDI Podcast: Flow with Curzio (#843)
2023/11/19
Govy shutdown – but who cares anyway? Moody’s does – rating watch to negative. Inflation holds – markets go vertical – Short holiday weeks and then into the end of the year.. Guest – Frank Curzio. Curzio Research Frank Curzio can be reached by email at frank@curzioresearch.com Frank Curzio is an equity analyst with close […]
TDI Podcast: Thrust and Trend Update (#842)
2023/11/12
Rates Dip, Oil Dips, Stocks Hold Banks under pressure again – what is the problem now? Analysts cutting estimates at fastest pace since when? And out guest…Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report Tom McClellan is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and […]
TDI Podcast: An Investment Carol (#841)
2023/11/05
How would you like a big inheritance in the future? An Investment Carol Climbing a wall of worry as Powell tweaks commentary. Earnings season – looks like going to be back to earnings growth – Say goodbye to the earnings recession This episode guest: Steve Sanders – EVP at Interactive Brokers. Steve Sanders […]
TDI Podcast: DiMartino’s Hail Mary (#840)
2023/10/29
Only one sector up for the month – it will surprise you. GDP is what? Who says the economy is slowing? Margins and earnings – a look inside. And our guest this week – Danielle Dimartino Booth Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research, a research and analytics firm. […]
TDI Podcast: Ross Gerber Airs It Out (#839)
2023/10/22
What exactly is AI and how is it transformational? Where are markets going and why does the Fed want the economy to break? Our guest, Ross Gerber is naming names in the AI and Tech space that he likes right now. Ross Gerber is the Co-Founder, President and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth […]
TDI Podcast: Funding Sustainable Bubbles (#838)
2023/10/15
Autonomous farming, sustainable energy, food scarcity and the debt cycle that funded it all. Conflict in the Middle East drives oil up Hot CPI and PPI squash bonds. Sustainability and bubbles are the focus of our guests. Satyajit Das is an internationally respected expert in finance, with over 37 years’ experience. Das presciently anticipated many […]
TDI Podcast: False Certainties (#837)
2023/10/08
The all important employment report and what happened after. Treasury Yields go parabolic as political upheaval and a new shutdown countdown starts. Guest, Dr. Richard Smith – AKA – The Doctor of Uncertainty When Dr. Richard Smith discovered that many top investment advisors and wealthy traders used special mathematical formulas to invest in the stock […]
TDI Podcast: Reputational Risk (#836)
2023/10/01
Markets digesting impacts of a government shutdown Moody’s warns US about its credit rating. Stocks stick to the program – seasonal trends hold. Wondering – are strikes the new inflationary thorn? Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy […]
TDI Podcast: Yentervention (#835)
2023/09/24
Some old adages work – Sell Rosh Hashana – But what about Buying Yom Kippur? Market Sell-Off deepens as the Fed grows more hawkish. Some Buying opportunities emerging… Our guest – Chris Vecchio Head of Futures and Forex at Tastylive Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Chris Vecchio is currently the Head […]
TDI Podcast: Energy Transitions (#834)
2023/09/17
CPI Hot – PPI Hot – but markets shrug it off. ECB raised rates 0.25% in a semi-surprising move. Blackout period continues for the Fed ahead of next week’s rate meeting – what a relief. And our guest this week – Eric Townsend, Host of the MacroVoices podcast Check this out and find out more […]
TDI Podcast: Dow Theory and Trends (#833)
2023/09/10
The squirmy squirrelly market continues – China finally figured it out – not pretty Oil up, stocks down, dollar up, VIX down just around 13 – Complacency? And out Guest, Manual Blay – The Dow Theory.com – Newsletter – Home of the Schannep & Blay Timing Indicators Manuel Blay is the editor of TheDowTheory.com, a […]
TDI Podcast: Cyber Trading U (#832)
2023/09/03
Unemployment rate is up. Oil is Up. Stocks are Up!! Yields are up too! Guest- Fausto Pugliese – Cyber Trading University Fausto Pugliese was an original “SOES Bandit” day traders in the early 1990’s and was one of the first independent traders to take advantage of the Direct Access Trading technology. He acquired a wealth […]
TDI Podcast: Bad IRA Advice (#831)
2023/08/27
Squirrely market conditions continue – and its just getting started Deadline October 1st – Another political drama brewing… An inside look at terrible investing idea involving variable annuities. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (SPY), (TSLA), (DKS), (M)
TDI Podcast: The Ozempic Economy (#830)
2023/08/20
Market action is going from bad to worse. Wondering about inflation – yes inflation. Another government shutdown looms – what happens next? And our guest – Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research Ed Easterling is the founder and President of Crestmont Holdings, an Oregon-based investment management and research firm that publishes provocative research on the financial […]
TDI Podcast: Silver Linings (#829)
2023/08/13
48 hours in Nashville. Mega-Caps puke up some of the recent gains – then try for a little run. Potential for reflation – watch for that word… Not seeing and significant drop in CPI. Our Guest today is Lou Basanese – President of Public Ventures, LLC. Lou is a well-known thought leader and advocate for […]
TDI Podcast: Navigating Discipline (#828)
2023/08/06
The USA debt rating is CUT! Most earnings are out and we have the results. Weekly oil inventories – largest draw-down EVER! Guest – Cullen Roch founder of Discipline Funds, helps us navigate risk. Mr. Roche founded Discipline Funds to help investors obtain access to low fee, diversified portfolios that help them stay the course […]
TDI Podcast: Silent Barks (#827)
2023/07/30
Bank of Japan spooks investors. DJIA breaks it winning streak – almost had the all-time record. News to use, valuations to value. Guests, David Gaffen (Reuters) and Vitaly Katsenelson (IMA) David Gaffen is the U.S. breaking news companies editor at Reuters, where he has worked for 14 years. He also did stints as the U.S. […]
TDI Podcast: Tech Washing (#826)
2023/07/23
The AI tech wash is getting old. Earnings in and so far, no surprises. One sell off day in a sea of buying. A recap of my discussion with Goldman Sachs. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (MSFT), (NFLX), (TSLA), (SCHWB), (BAC), (JPM)
TDI Podcast: A High Bar (#825)
2023/07/16
Its that time again – earnings season is upon us. Markets in a new bull run – getting a little frothy though… Inflation is Only 3% Now – but that is against the high watermark and our guest, Patrick O’Hare – Chief Market Analyst for Briefing.com. Patrick has been with Briefing.com since 1997 and authors […]
DHUnplugged #659: Summer Doldrums
2023/07/12
Info (Show/Hide)
Make it or break it time – earnings season is right ahead…
Fed heads – 8 speakers this week.
Tesla – blows away delivery estimates – what that means for profitability.
Change of direction for this currency? What the players expect.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts !
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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Warm Up
- It is make or break - Earnings season is here
- Hot weather and hot inflation
- 8 Fed Speakers this week
- CPI data Wednesday - expected to be soft - Base effect
- Summer Doldrums but a Buying Frenzy!
Market Update
- Resilient - that's the word
- Eco divergence as employment stays strong
- Tech in the lead - But Banks ALL pass stress tests
- Europe favored over US on valuations (new analyst call)
- Big best on rising USD being reversed
AI
- Party’s over for ChatGPT Plus subscribers as OpenAI announced it has temporarily disabled the Browse with Bing beta tool from its service.
- Apparently, people used the feature to completely bypass paywalls and consume content for free.
- If a user specifically asks for a URL’s full text,” the AI will fulfill the request, including displaying content from paywalled articles
- How did it avoid the paywall?
---- Some paywalls are simply pasted over” articles, ChatGPT could simply read the code rendering the text and display the content without a problem.
META
- New Threads is threat to Twitter
---Twitter has degraded severly since Musk took over (IN AH opinion)
- META stock on fire, 100 million accounts created already
- Twitter is threatening to sue (of course)
West Wing Scandal?
- White powder was found in the White House last week
- Turned out to be Cocaine...
- - Who leaved a stash of coke anywhere - much less the White House?
Best Stock Market
- This year (to date) ???
- Zimbabwe
---- 5, 10, 20% daily gains
- Up 800% YTD
- Argentina up only 100% in 2023
Best Market 2023
FOLLOW UP
- Hyper-Inflation seems to boost stock markets
- Is it possible that this is the playbook that investors are using in US and other developed countries?
Change of Plans
- Apple is slowing its headset production and also slowing the rollout
--- By appointment only?
- Goldman is in talks to offload Apple credit and savings products to Amex
---- Goldman trying to rid itself of bad bet on personal/retail finance endeavor under CEO Solomon.
Jobs/Employment
- End of June: US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina
- July saw a slight uptick in initial claims
- ADP report - HOT - 450k new jobs added to payrolls
- BLS official disappointed - 200k added but Unemp Rate ticked down to 3.6%
-- Jobs report still solid down to wage growth
---- Last 4 months added near 1M new jobs - not a jobs markets that is seen as being held back by rates
Fed Rate Plans
- Since we last spoke.... Odds are now 83% +/- of a rate hike in July
- 10 year treasury over 4%
- 2 year treasury over 5%
- Inversion of 2/10 worst since 1980s (and holding for LONG time)
-- Powell's recent commentary discussed potential for 2 more hikes and acknowledged that the inflation rate will not come to 2% target until at last 2025
------ Note - they have never nailed a prediction for as long as time itself
Meanwhile
- Rates do not seem to be bothering many...
--- Consumer Confidence hits 17-month high
--- Housing seems to be coming back from brief dip
- - Many of the homebuilders shares are at ATH
China Economy - Another story
- PPI inflation shrank to -5.4% below expectations
- Industrial profits are in bad shape
- Factory activity is in contraction for last few months
- Government pushing stimulus - targeting housing
TESLA
- Big print on deliveries
- China also looking good
- - Wondering if the deep discounts that sparked the sales will show up as hurting profits
- Stock on FIRE since the start of 2023 (coincides with him refocusing on Tesla over Twitter?)
Windy
- Siemens Energy shares plunged 31% on Friday morning after the company scrapped its profit forecast and warned that costly problems at its wind turbine unit could last years.
- "substantial increase in failure rates of wind turbine components."
- Spinoff of the former gas and power division of German conglomerate Siemens
SVB
- SVB Financial Approved to Sell Investment Bank Back to Founder for $100 Million (4 years ago they paid $280 million)
- AND, not SVB suing FDIC to unlock the $ that it has in receivership so bank can run again
- What a great deal - again!
China
- Yellen visits - has a good time and supposedly smooths over a few issues.
- Bulgari under pressure - Put Taiwan as a separate country and now China is pissed
- - Company cowered and posted this apology on its official Weibo account, saying the "mistake was due to a management error and that it "respects China's sovereignty and territorial integrity".
Housing
- Hitting record highs
- Home prices hit a record high in May, rising 0.7% nationally compared with April at a seasonally adjusted rate, according to the Black Knight Home Price Index.
- By May, just over half of the nation's 50 largest housing markets, mostly in the Midwest and Northeast, had either returned to their prior price peaks or set new highs.
- Home prices are still weaker in the West and in many of the cities deemed pandemic "boom towns," which had an influx of remote workers finding new homes during the earlier days of Covid.
Congress - Focus Fuzzy
- U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Sunday called on regulators to investigate a popular influencer-created energy drink with nearly twice the caffeine of a Red Bull that he said is being marketed to children.
- Logan Paul's company PRIME to be investigated by FDA
--- Then there is the PGA and LIIV Golf merger
------ But they cannot seem to get a budget done or figure out spending...!
New tech
- Applied Materials released its first major update to some of its core semiconductor manufacturing equipment in more than decade, aiming to boost the number of chips factories can make while using less energy.
- The new system, called Vistara, is a central hub inside chip factories that feeds silicon discs called wafers into sealed vacuum chambers, where metals and other materials can be either deposited or stripped away within a few atoms of precision.
- The Vistara system is the first update to Applied's core chipmaking platform since 2010.
- The new system is also fitted with thousands of sensors that feed data into an artificial intelligence system, where factories can analyze the data to tweak manufacturing processes and cut down the use of electricity. The new system cuts energy use by about 10%, Applied said.
Tech News
- Microsoft confirmed Monday that it's eliminating additional jobs, a week after the start of its 2024 fiscal year.|
- Judge rules that the Microsoft Activision deal can go through
- Salesforce is increasing prices by about 9% on some cloud products
- Threads vs. Twitter
- Amazon Prime Day
- 27% of jobs at risk from AI revolution
---- More than a quarter of jobs in the OECD rely on skills that could be easily automated in the coming artificial intelligence revolution, and workers fear they could lose their jobs to AI, the OECD said on Tuesday.
List of AI Target Professions
- Advertisement
- Coders/programmers
- Writers
- Finance professionals
-Legal workers
- Researchers
- Customer service
- Data entry and analysis.
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TDI Podcast: ReZ-ILL-Yence (#824)
2023/07/09
Rates spike to decade long highs. The employment reports provide mixed messages. Resilient – that is the name of the game – And a look back in order to look forward. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (JPM)
TDI Podcast: Ignore It All (#823)
2023/07/02
June is over – in the books – now the summer is finally here. Back to that question – Is this a new Bull market? We have some more info to discuss. NASDAQ 100 best 6 month start in decades! And things that were said that markets ignored. Check this out and find out more […]
TDI Podcast: Seasonality with Curzio (#822)
2023/06/26
June coming to a close and what an interesting month it has been. Crypto coming under pressure – SEC is making moves. Inflation kicking up again around the world – wondering about US numbers. And our guest this week is Frank Curzio from Curzio Research. Frank Curzio can be reached by email at frank@curzioresearch.com Frank […]
DHUnplugged #658: No Limits
2023/06/21
Info (Show/Hide)
National Debt – Which way is it moving?
Cough Syrup risk – toxic supply alert…
Fed paused or skipped in last week’s meeting – what that really means.
New Things – from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts !
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Check out ccpstats.com
Warm Up
- National Debt - Which way is it moving?
- Booming business - converting ICE to EV
- Cough Syrup risk - toxic supply
- Fed paused or skipped in last week's meeting
- New Things - from the screen to your table (New meaning for Binge)
- Happy belayed Juneteenth
Market Update
- Bulls are in control - half full
- Fed says more hikes to come - no one believes them
- ECB raises rates again - even as Eurozone slips into recession
- Economic point to downside risk
- China stimulus on the way
NO SHOW NEXT WEEK - Cruising the Abacos (Bahamas)
--- Assuming Tropical storm does not kick up
Fed Meeting
- Looked like a hawkish call
- Unanimous decision to hold this meeting
- Powell talked up future rate hikes and changed outlook to include 2 more @0.25%
- Markets are not buying it..
--- Initial rates came up then they came in a bit, equity markets moved in similar fashion
- What this is telling you is that markets feel that higher rates impacting the economy is fake news
----- BUT, if so, Powell will be even more aggressive
Fed Follow Up
- Last week, S&P 500 reaches highest in 14 months.
- Led by the Mega-caps again.
- Markets fell a bit on Friday with Op-X and long weekend
Even more Fed Follow up
- Friday: The Federal Reserve warned Friday that tighter U.S. credit conditions following a spate of bank failures in the spring could hinder economic growth this year.
- In its semi-annual monetary report to Congress, the central bank noted that bank lending conditions have "tightened notably" over the past year due to the rapid increase in interest rates and the recent turmoil within the financial sector.
- "Evidence suggests that the recent banking-sector stress and related concerns about deposit outflows and funding costs contributed to tightening and expected tightening in lending standards and terms at some banks beyond what these banks would have reported absent the banking-sector stress," the report said.
- That survey also pointed to a sharp slowdown in demand for credit.
----- The percentage of banks reporting stronger demand for commercial and industrial loans tumbled by 55.5% in the first three months of the year, the sharpest decline since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
- Powell: "The economy is facing headwinds from tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," he said. "The extent of these effects remains uncertain."
Economics
- Data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers spent on a range of goods including vehicles.
- Another data set showed jobless claims were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,0000 for the week ended June 10, but were above economists' forecast of 249,000 claims.
- Import prices fell in May and the annual decrease was the sharpest in three years.
- That followed a report on Tuesday showing April headline inflation increased by less than expected.
Crypto
- According to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and despite the U.S. regulator not approving any applications for spot bitcoin ETFs to date, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust will use Coinbase Custody as its custodian.
- The SEC rejected Grayscale Investment LLC’s application last year to convert its flagship spot Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.
- The SEC has also rejected proposals for spot bitcoin ETFs from firms including Fidelity, Cboe Global Markets and NYDIG.
- Does Larry Fink/Blackrock hold more sway with the SEC????
Post Debt Ceiling - NO LIMIT
- The U.S. national debt hit $32 trillion for the first time ever this week.
- Debt Ceiling bill suspended limits - will allow the government to borrow whatever it wants until the end of 2024, when the debt ceiling suspension ends.
- 12 month federal deficit $2 TRILLION - way overspending
- Discussion: How does this work out? (Rates higher, cost of borrowing surging, spending continues = unsustainable)
Over to China
- China's economy stumbled in May with industrial output and retail sales growth missing forecasts
- Industrial output grew 3.5% in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, slower than the 5.6% expansion in April and slightly below a 3.6% increase expected by analysts
- Retail sales - a key gauge of consumer confidence - rose 12.7%, missing forecasts of 13.6% growth and slowing from April's 18.4%.
- China's youth unemployment rose to a record in May.
- - The unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 rose to 20.8% in May, a record and above the high set in April. The jobless rate for people of all ages in cities was 5.2% in May.
- GOOD NEWS! STIMULUS ON THE WAY!
More China
- Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecast as property slowdown bites
- Goldman Sachs analysts have cut forecasts for China's economic growth, citing persistently weak confidence and the cloud over the property market as stronger-than-expected headwinds.
- The U.S. investment bank lowered its full-year real gross domestic product growth forecast for the world's second biggest economy from 6% to 5.4%, according to a note published late on Sunday. It also lowered its 2024 growth forecast from 4.6% to 4.5%.
- Investors are starting to change the way they view the real estate opportunity that has been a staple in China for years.
Blinken Meets XI
- Comments that all happy that US/China tensions thawing
Screen to Table
- Netflix is opening its first-ever restaurant featuring food from ‘Chef’s Table’ and ‘Iron Chef’ stars
- The streaming service is opening Netflix Bites this month, an “elevated dining experience” in Los Angeles that features chefs who star in popular Netflix shows like “Chef’s Table” and Nailed It!”"
- Mixologists from Netflix’s “Drink Masters” competition show will be in charge of creating custom cocktails for the drink menu.
- The two-week pop-up will open on June 30. Guests who make a reservation will be required to put down a non-refundable $25 deposit which will go toward their final bill
- “As yummy as that’d be, Netflix Bites is strictly an opportunity to taste these chefs’ unique dishes,” the FAQ reads. “Chefs will not be on site to meet and greet.”
Target
- Target, which has been struggling with pushback over transgender merchandise, is also dealing with downgrades that have pushed its stock price to a three-year low.
- BOA lowered its price objective from $180 to $145 while saying the reduction is a response to weakened peer multiples, decelerating traffic and modest mobile app engagement.
- Since mid-May, when the controversy hit Target's market value, Target had lost over $15 billion at one point. As of Wednesday, it recovered slightly to $61 billion from the high of $74 billion last month.
- KeyBanc Capital Markets cut the retailer's shares June 5, to "sector weight" from "overweight" as the resumption of student loan payments stipulated by Congress' debt ceiling agreement posed a sizable headwind for the discretionary spending of shoppers.
Mortgage Rates
- Some good news for home-buyers
--- Mortgage rates fall, pulling 10- and 15-year terms below 6%
- The rest of the rate curve is still well above 6%
- - Not seemingly stopping new home sales - Lennar had spectacular numbers last week and guided pretty impressively
Cars
- Toyota Motor stock sealed its best week since 2009 on Friday, as the automaker laid out a robust plan for future all-electric vehicles and company scion Akio Toyoda became leader of the Japanese company's board.
- Shares of Toyota on the New York Stock Exchange closed Friday at $164.35 per share, down 2.3% for the day but still up 10.6% on the week. That 5-day gain is the stock's best week since April 2009 when shares increased 14.5%.
More Cars
- A burgeoning industry is breathing new life, and power, into internal combustion vehicles by converting them to electric.
- Big DIY community working on conversions
- This can't be a mainstream thing...
Berkshire
- Berkshire Hathaway on Monday said its wholly-owned subsidiary National Indemnity Company has increased its stake in five Japanese trading firms to average more than 8.5%.
- The companies involved are Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui and Sumitomo. The aggregate value of these interests surpasses that of Berkshire-held stock in any country outside of the U.S., the firm said.
- Berkshire Hathaway said it intends to hold its Japanese investments for the long term, with CEO Warren Buffett pledging the company will only purchase up to 9.9% of any of the five firms.
- Conglomorates
- Berkshire also knows that Japan supports its stock through semi-direct purcharse by BOJ
- Only issue with this bet is that it is very susceptible to Yen moved
Terrible Cough Syrup
- There is an ongoing global threat posed by toxic cough syrups, said the World Health Organization (WHO)
- The U.N. agency has already named nine countries where tainted syrups may have been on sale, after the deaths of more than 300 infants on three continents last year were linked to the drugs.
- They warned that contaminated medicines could still be found for several years, because adulterated barrels of an essential ingredient may remain in warehouses. Cough syrups and the ingredient, propylene glycol, both have shelf-lives of around two years.
- Unscrupulous actors sometimes substitute propylene glycol with toxic alternatives, ethylene glycol and diethylene glycol, because they are cheaper, several pharmaceutical manufacturing experts have said.
Fishing News (h/t Mat D)
- North Carolina blue marlin fishing tournament ends in controversy after 619-pound catch is disqualified
- Big Rock Tournament (big money$$$$$$$)
- "After careful deliberation and discussions between the Big Rock Rules Committee and Board of Directors with biologists from both NC State CMAST (Center for Marine Sciences and Technology) and NC Marine Fisheries biologists as well as an IGFA (International Game Fish Association) official, it was determined that SENSATIONS 619.4lb Blue Marlin is disqualified due to mutilation caused by a shark or other marine animal. It was deemed that the fish was mutilated before it was landed or boated and there for it was disqualified," the statement read.
- 484 lb won = Boat named Sushi
- Organizers said 271 boats participated in the tournament. Sushi took home $2.77 million from the tournament, according to the Jacksonville Daily News.
Podcast News
- Spotify exec calls Harry and Meghan ‘grifters’ after podcast deal comes to early end
- Spotify executive Bill Simmons described Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, as "grifters" after the couple's partnership with the streaming platform came to a seemingly premature end Friday.
- The partnership with Harry and Meghan's production company Archewell Audio, first announced in Dec. 2020, was originally described by Spotify as a "multiyear partnership," with the promise of delivering "podcasts that will inspire."
- However, the collaborative efforts have resulted in just one, 12-episode series of the podcast "Archetypes," which saw Meghan interview notable guests, including Serena Williams and Mariah Carey.
Reddit Strike
- API fees and whatever else is going on - people pissed
- User rooms turned private - "on strike"
- Looking for income - need to show something for IPO - A target is artificial intelligence companies such as OpenAI that create value by scraping Reddit’s forums to hone their own products. Huffman’s plan would shut off that free-data spigot
- Big problem for IPO plans
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TDI Podcast: Checkmate (#821)
2023/06/18
A pause or a maybe skip is what the Fed has ordered. Coming in hawkish and market is spooked…for about 10 minutes. New highs driven by – you guessed it the Mega Caps. A question answered: Are we in a new bull market? A complete discussion about the inner workings of quantitative analysis. Check this […]
TDI Podcast: SKIP, Recession, Pause (#820)
2023/06/11
OPEC Cuts production – at least on country does. Still, oil drops. Odds still favor a fed SKIP – the new word on the street. A look at ROE and market performance during recessions. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Stocks mentioned in this episode: (AAPL), (OIL), (AMD), (NVDA)
TDI Podcast: Foggy TARA (#819)
2023/06/04
May Market Madness – Tech vs. everything else. Politicians create problems – just to fix them – My Heroes! Bifurcating markets – that is of interest. And out Guest – Tom Nelson, Lead Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton Funds. Tom Nelson is a senior vice president and head of asset allocation portfolio management for Franklin […]
TDI Podcast: Really Local Banking (#818)
2023/05/28
Memorial Day is here and we can smell the summer! Government creating problems – just to solve them? Risk appetite perking up and our guest this week is President and CEO of Locality Bank, Keith Costello. Keith Costello is the President, CEO, and co-founder of Locality Bank, a new digital first community bank which opened […]
TDI Podcast: Dunning Kruger Effect (#817)
2023/05/21
Risk warehousing, Government paralysis and other interesting concepts from this week’s guest, Dr. Richard Smith. How to mitigate self-defeating investment plans? AI and the potential for civilization – good stuff in this episode. When Dr. Richard Smith discovered that many top investment advisors and wealthy traders used special mathematical formulas to invest in the stock […]
TDI Podcast: Crisis of Confidence (#816)
2023/05/14
Inflation CPI report as expected – markets – don’t know what to make of it. Banks still not getting any love – more shoes to drop. Debt ceiling talks going nowhere… This week’s guest is Thoma Thornton – Hedge Fund Telemetry. Thomas Thornton is a former portfolio manager, senior trader, and technical analyst with Level […]
TDI Podcast: Revenge Investing (#815)
2023/05/07
No Dead Fed – Hikes still on the table – although markets don’t agree. A quick look back and ahead as banks are in trouble. It is getting a little silly… Our Guest, Howard Silverblatt – SP Global on earnings and the real stats to understand Howard Silverblatt (@hsilverb) is Senior Industry Analyst, Index Investment […]
TDI Podcast: The Cycle Is The Cycle (#814)
2023/04/30
The banking Crisis is NOT over – no surprise here. Earnings for mega names coming in better than expected – stocks zooming. Sinkhole Alert issued – what does that even mean? And a conversation about M2 Money Supply. Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information […]
DHUnplugged #651: Resilient Rockem
2023/04/26
Info (Show/Hide)
Markets are moving back and forth just waiting for some big news.
Talk of a US default is making the rounds.
Tech has a big day – helping to push markets up from their recent despair.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts !
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Warm Up
- All of a sudden - recession fears
- US Default whispers
- Republicans put forth budget with increase and expense slashing
- India - taking over the population race
- Resiliency everywhere ...
Market Update
- Banks - Still on shaky ground
- Central Banks blamed for market rally
- "This year’s rally in risk assets is more to do with a $1 trillion central bank liquidity injection than any improvement in the economic outlook, according to Citigroup Inc.. "
- "That massive tailwind — enough to lop 50 basis points off the investment-grade risk premium — may soon become a huge drag as policymakers get back to quashing inflation, having extinguished the banking-sector fire. "
- Do we believe that the Fed is done?
Earnings
Coca-Cola - Average price of 192 ounces of Coca-Cola's soda (12 pack of 16oz bottle) in the U.S. rose to $9.30 in 2022 from $8.03 in 2021, according to NielsenIQ's data. It stood at $10.55 so far in 2023. (31% increase in 2 years)
- Adjusted earnings came in at 68 cents per share, compared with estimates of 64 cents.
- The company's first-quarter revenue rose about 5% to $10.98 billion, beating estimates of $10.80 billion
IBM Earnings
- Bellweather anymore?
- IBM Corp missed Wall Street expectations for first-quarter revenue
- WHY? Hurt by shrinking corporate spending on IT services and a strong dollar.
- IBM cut its full-year consulting revenue growth forecast to 6%-8% from earlier expectations of high single-digit percentage growth.
- "We are seeing softness in certain components of our discretionary based offerings in consulting," Chief Financial Officer James Kavanaugh told Reuters about the U.S. market.
Whirlpool
- Didn't everyone think that margins would compress and higher rates will kill real estate?
- Whirlpool prelim Q1 $2.66 vs $2.17 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $4.65 bln vs $4.50 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
- Whirlpool sees FY23 $16.00-18.00 vs $15.97 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees revs $19.4 bln vs $19.02 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Tech
- Microsoft beats by $0.22, beats on revs; Azure +31% constant currency growth (Shares up 6% A/H)
---- Revenue rose 7% to $52.9 billion in the quarter ended March
- Windows division reporting revenue of $13.3 billion versus analyst estimates of $12.19 billion
- Alphabet beats by $0.10, beats on revs, Google Advertising revenue essentially flat yr/yr; On April 19, Board of Directors authorized repurchase up to additional $70 bln of Class A and Class C shares PLUS big 70b buyback announcement (Shares slight move A/H)
------- Ad sales saw a drop again - although not as much as last quarter
Banks
- The bank crisis is not totally over yet
- Earnings and news from First Republic Bank - massive loss of deposits and company looking to some drastic ways to save itself (stock don 49% today)
- Pacific West bank - better than expected results, shares up 13% A/H
Debt Ceiling - Limits
- Republican led plan
- McCarthy floated a plan last week that would pair $4.5 trillion in spending cuts with a $1.5 trillion increase in the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit.
- All talking about this being political divided and will not pass
- The HOPE is that it will get sides talking
Change of US Default - debt ceiling etc
- Current pricing of credit default swaps soar
- BUT, only 2% implied odds of a default
- Seen this movie before.......
- This time different?
- As of April 19, investors were willing to pay $9,600 a year to insure $1 million in U.S. Treasury debt, up from $1,400 at the start of the year. That is even more than during major budget fights in 2011 and 2013 when, like now, Republicans in Congress were refusing to raise the statutory ceiling on how much Treasury could borrow unless a Democratic president agreed to reduce spending.
CDS US Chart
USD - Bets are more downside
- Some 87% of 331 survey respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates to 3% or below
- Discussion that the markets are under-pricing the Fed's oncoming easing cycle
- Good for commodities, crypto, metals, multinationals
Credit Suisse
- Credit Suisse said on Monday that 61 billion Swiss francs ($68 billion) in assets left the bank in the first quarter and that outflows were continuing, underscoring the challenge faced by UBS Group AG in rescuing its rival.
- It also said customer deposits declined by 67 billion francs in the quarter and that there had been significant non-renewals of maturing time deposits.
- 167 years old bank.....
Bed Bath and Bankrupt
- Bed Bath & Beyond Inc filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sunday after the home goods retailer failed to secure funds to stay afloat.
- The Union, New Jersey-based home goods retailer filed for bankruptcy in a District of New Jersey court, listing both its estimated assets and liabilities in the range of $1 billion and $10 billion, according to a court filing.
- Retail locations will be closing (360 locations for BB&B and 120 for Buy Buy Baby)
- Blame for establishment failure was the move to sell more store-branded products.
Tesla - More Jabber
- Tesla Inc boss Elon Musk on Wednesday doubled down on the price war he started at the end of last year, saying the electric vehicle (EV) maker would prioritize sales growth ahead of profit in a weak economy.
- "It's better to shift a large number of cars at lower margin and harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy," Musk told analysts on a conference call.
- The company reported total gross margin of 19.3%, short of market expectations of 22.4%, according to 14 analysts polled by Refinitiv.
- Tesla also did not report its automotive gross margin, a figure closely watched by investors, with Musk saying the weak economy making it hard to provide margin outlook.
Same Day (Zero Day Options)
- Day Traders Lose $358,000 Per Day Gambling on Zero-Day Options
- Researchers warn about growing risk should 0DTE broaden out
TECH
- SoftBank-owned Arm Ltd. will work with manufacturing partners to develop its own semiconductor, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing unidentified people briefed on the move.
- What is this about?
- ARM competing with it's customers?
More Tech
- Alphabet CEO’s Pay Soars to $226 Million on Huge Stock Award
- Meanwhile - cancelling buildouts and cutting expenses and jobs. Stock in the dumper...
Champagne - Only in France
- Miller High Life - the Champagne of Beers?
- At the request of the trade body defending the interests of houses and growers of the northeastern French sparkling wine, Belgian customs crushed more than 2,000 cans of Miller High Life advertised as such.
- The Comité Champagne asked for the destruction of a shipment of 2,352 cans on the grounds that the century-old motto used by the American brewery infringes the protected designation of origin "Champagne."
- Started with the slogan in 1969
India - Overtaking China
- India is on its way to become the world’s most populous country, overtaking China with almost 3 million more people in the middle of this year
- The demographic data from the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) “State of World Population Report, 2023” estimates India’s population at 1,428.6 million or 1.4286 billion against 1.4257 billion for China.
- The United States is a distant third, with an estimated population of 340 million
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?
ANNOUNCING: CTP for Goldman Sachs
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..
CLICK HERE FOR MORE CHARTS ON TRADING VIEW
CRYPTO LIMERICKS
JCD Score ()
FED LIMERICKS
JCD Score ()
See this week’s stock picks HERE
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The Disciplined Investor
https://thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog
Investment Disciplines and Timely Advice.
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