E UR/USD Elliott Wave

From May of 2011 the EUR/USD pair was trading in bearish mood, yesterday this major pair pushed lower again reaching new low at the 1.2657 level. During the European session we could observe descending move towards the 1.2740 level (100EMA support). Therefore during the New York session the EUR/USD pair continued trading in a bearish mood and we could observe price below the 1.2660 level. Today during the Asian session we could observe price at the 1.2615 level. We can consider this move as the end of 5 wave. Presently we are in the A wave (coloured blue) and I expect to see end of this corrective wave at 200EMA resistance. We can use 1.2770 as a Take Profit point and 1.2615 as Stop loss point. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and the U.S. New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels

(S3) 1.2679 (S2) 1.2682 (S1) 1.2683 (PP) 1.2685 (R1) 1.2688 (R2) 1.2689 (R3) 1.2691

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.2670 with Stop Loss at 1.2615 and Take Profit at 1.2770 are recommended.
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USD/CAD Elliott Wave

The USD/CAD pair was trading in an upward move yesterday. During the Asian session we could observe descending movement toward the 1.0150 support level (200EMA). We can consider this move as the end of C wave of the bigger 4 wave (coloured blue). During the European session price started pushing higher reaching a new daily high at the 1.0185 level. Therefore during the early New York session price pushed back a few times to 200EMA but bullish mood was stronger, and at the end of the session we could observe the USD/CAD pair at 1.0233. Today during the Asian session we could observe continuation of the bluish mood and price is currently testing the 1.0237 level. Presently we are in the 5 wave of the bigger 3 wave (coloured green) and I expect to see price higher today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 retraces 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci extensions (0.9800-1.0063-0.9953) with Take Profit at 1.0381 (161.8% of wave 1). The end of the 4 wave at 1.0150 can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the CAD Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and U.S. New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels

(S3) 1.0193 (S2) 1.0197 (S1) 1.0200 (PP) 1.0203 (R1) 1.0207 (R2) 1.0210 (R3) 1.0213

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 1.0245 with Stop Loss at 1.0150 and Take Profit at 1.0381 are recommended.
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The GBP/USD currency pair witnessed quick decline from 1.6120 towards 1.5730 during last week.

 

 

GBP/USD has intraday support zone located around 1.5740 - 1.5760 which prevented further decline for sometime before GBP/USD could break it down.

Resistance zone 1.5840-1.5860 was being tested Yesterday when GBP/USD showed significant bearish reaction breaking down 1.5740 - 1.5760 reaching 1.5675 today.

The GBP/USD pair's still having an Intraday Support level located around 1.5640 corresponding to the lower limit of the Blue channel and the backside of the broken bearish Violet channel.

 

 

Today few hours ago, GBP/USD has broken the lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.5750 thus opening the way for lower levels at 1.5675.

Price Level 1.5675 corresponds to the lower limit of the Violet channel and the Average Daily Range of today's movement which constitutes a significant Intraday Support Level.

Price Level 1.5750 on retesting will be a key-level for today's movement as it's the backside of the broken Yellow channel & the upper limit of the Violet channel.

Showing bearish price action towards 1.5750 triggers the SELL entry with SL above 1.5800. However, its breakthrough will allow GBP/USD to make bullish retracement towards higher levels around 1.5850.

 

 

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The lower limits of the Violet and Blue channels at 0.9990 were tested, providing strong support for the USD/CAD pair.

Bullish rejection towards 0.9990 allowed USD/CAD to initiate a new bullish swing towards 1.0225 establishing a significant support level at 1.0050 and the newer one at 1.0125.

Retesting of Price Level 1.0125 will be also a testing of the lower limit of the Blue channel which maybe a good BUY entry then.

The Violet channel on the 4H chart is quite steep and narrow that predicted its breakdown on Monday, which is expected to reach the Price Level 1.0125 initially.

Price Zone 1.0235-1.0250 has resisted further upside movement this week providing Intraday Resistance for GBP/USD. However its breakthrough will probably allow the pair to make another bullish swing towards 1.0280 and 1.0320.

 

 

On the Hourly chart, the USD/CAD pair has been moving within the sideways Yellow and Blue channels and the narrow bullish Violet channel which represents yesterday's movement.

USD/CAD is currently testing the upper limit of the Yellow channel at 1.0225 which should provide intraday resistance in order to push USD/CAD to visit the lower limit of the Yellow channel at 1.0125.

It's important to note that the pair has Intraday Resistance at 1.0235 - 1.0245 levels, which if broken, will allow USD/CAD to resume its bullish movement within the violet channel towards 1.0280.

 

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Gold is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1,552 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1,508.

Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but are approaching the oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1,552 with the 1st objective at 1,565 and then at 1,570. A break through 1,549 will alter this scenario.
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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate resistance of its medium term bearish channel at 1.5780 and seems to initiate a decline. However, a break through these levels will release good potential and will be able to reach the upper limit of this one to 1.5830.

Technical indicators provide buy-signals but until the resistance is not broken the assumption of a decline is most likely. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity as soon as the spot rate has broken through its resistance of 1.5780 with the 1st objective at 1.5830 and then at 1.5850. A break through 1.5760 will invalidate this scenario.
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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 1.2620 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 1.2530.

Technical indicators provide sell-signals but are approaching the oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands are much discarded as a result of a strong decline these days. Stabilization is expected in a short term.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.2620 with the 1st objective at 1.2680 and then at 1.2700. A break through 1.2600 will alter this scenario.
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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

As expected earlier, and depicted above, prices bounced back right after testing 1.4820 which is resistance that had turned into support now. It is also quite amazing to note that support trend line remains intact and prices bounce just shy of it. We expect prices to rally towards the D extension target at 1.5200 levels at least. Please consider all dips as buy for the single currency pair till 1.4800 is intact.

Trade Recommendations:

Buy around 1.4820/50, Stop at 1.4750, targetting at 1.5200 at least.

 

Good Luck!
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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

The overall wave structure remains constructive for bulls to resume. As depicted above, after bouncing back from backside of the trendline, at present prices seems to be retesting the dropping resistance turned support line. In any case, till the time prices are above 100.00, a D wave extension rally can be expected to resume towards 117.00. A break below 100.00 shall change the structure in favour of bears, to target below 97.00. For now we remain bullish.

Trade Recommendations:

Buy around 101.00/20, stop 100.00, target at 117.00.

 

Good Luck!
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Forecast:

At 0.9485 a strong level (Resistance) will be formed providing a clear signal for Sell-deals with the target seen at the 0.9325 level. Stop Loss is to be placed above 0.95.
At 0.9310 a strong level (Support) will be formed providing a clear signal for Buy-deals with the target seen at the 0.9470 level. Stop Loss is to be placed below 0.9245.

 

Overview:

USD/CHF:

It is necessary to consider that the price is still located between points 0.93 and 0.95, i.e. above the strong resistance level 0.9485. The pair has already formed a strong resistance at this level of 0.9485 and is presently approaching it for the further testing. Therefore, the Swissie is expected to go downwards following the non-corrective structure and indicating the bearish opportunity below the 0.95 level. Sell-deals are recommended below 0.95 with the first target seen at the 0.9413 level. Thus, the downtrend is likely to continue the bearish movement towards the 0.9325 level. Moreover, it is crucial that the price has probably formed a strong support at 0.9310. The saturation is likely to take place around 0.93. Therefore it is possible that the market will start showing the signs of a bullish behaviour. In other words, Buy-deals are recommended above 0.9310 with the first target seen at the 0.9403 level and further at the 0.9475 level.

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The spot rate is currently testing the intermediate support of its medium term bearish channel at 100.30 suggesting a rebound. However, a break through this level will trigger a decline to the lower limit – 99.30.

Technical indicators do not provide clears signals but are approaching the oversell zone supporting the assumption of a rebound. Bollinger bands have greatly tightened in recent days showing a decline in volatility and the imminence of a violent movement.

According to previous events the market will provide a bullish opportunity at the level of 100.30 with the 1st objective at 100.90 and then at 101.20. A break through 100.10 will alter this scenario.
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Weekly Pivot Point: 1.5889.

GBP/USD:

Resistance: 1.6030. (Sell below this level).

Support: 1.5624. (Buy above this level).

Trading Recommendations:

 

According to previous events, the price is still located between the levels 1.5650 and 1.6030.

 

The descending movement will probably take place lower than the 1.6030 level with the first targets at levels 1.5730 and 1.5633.
BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.562 level with targets at levels 1.57 and 1.5889 (Weekly pivot point).

Overview:

It should be noted that the market revealed the signs of instability. The trend movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel. Concerning previous events, the price is still between the levels 1.5650 and 1.6030, so it is recommended to be cautious while making deals in this area. Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the sideways channel is passed through. Then, the market will probably indicate the signs of a bullish trend. In other words, BUY-deals are recommended higher than the 1.5625 level with its first target at the level of 1.5725. From this point the pair is likely to begin the ascending movement to the point 1.5825 and further to the level 1.5900. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.6030, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level 1.6030. In this regard, SELL-deals are recommended lower than the 1.6030 level with the first target at 1.5730. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.5633.

 

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GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend from 129.32 (light green in the chart). Within this wave we have four subwaves (red in the chart), and potential impulse subwave 5 is developing from 126.39.

The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 131.75-127.76-129.32, 128.71-124.59-126.39.

Supports:

- 123.84 = contracted objective point (COP)

- 122.86 = expanded objective point (XOP)

- 122.27 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the upside the resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 129.33-124.59.

Resistances:

- 126.40 = .382 retracement

- 126.96 = .50 ret

- 127.52 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold

The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (30-35 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (55-70 pips above the current prices). Watch for opportunities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.
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AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A (light green in the chart) of medium term downtrend. Within this wave there are five subwaves (magenta in the chart), and impulse subwave 5 is developing from 0.9934. The latter contrains subwaves A, B and C (yellow in the chart), and subwave C is still developing from 0.9907. However the upmove.

If the price resumes the downtrend the targets below will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0473-1.0110-1.0219, 1.0219-0.9795-0.9934.

Supports:

- 0.9672 = contracted objective point (COP)

- 0.9632 = expanded objective point (XOP)

- 0.9510 = objective point (OP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 0.9934 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold

The larger wave is now moving down, so it's prefereable to go short when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices), watch for possibilities to go short at or near the indicated resistances.

Read more on how to trade with Fibonacci levels.
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TODAY's   TECHNICAL   LEVELS:

Resistance. 3 : 80.34.

Resistance. 2 : 80.18.

Resistance. 1 : 80.02.

Support. 1 : 79.83.

Support. 2 : 79.67.

Support. 3 : 79.51.

 

DESCRIPTION :

Please, pay attention to the levels of support. 3 (79.51) and resistance. 3 (80.34), in general, when a level is touched, USD/JPY will rebound from the previous minimum by10 to 20 pips, but if the levels are broken through by over 50 pips, then it will be a sign of that these currencies have found trends today.
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TODAY's   TECHNICAL   LEVELS: 

Breakout BUY Level : 1.2722.

Strong Resistance : 1.2715.

Original Resistance : 1.2703.

Inner Sell Area : 1.2691.

Target Inner Area : 1.2661.

Inner Buy Area : 1.2631.

Original Support : 1.2619.

Strong Support : 1.2606.

Breakout SELL Level : 1.2598.

 

DESCRIPTION :

Today EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.2619 and 1.2703 and is accompanied by strong support at 1.2606 and by 1.2715 as strong resistance.

If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below a 1.2598-level today, then this will indicate considerable bearish strength, while if EUR/USD manages to break out and close above a 1.2722-level, then this will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.2631, and at 1.2691– a SELL position, in this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.2661.
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USD/CAD Elliott Wave

The USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move yesterday. During the European session we could observe ascending move toward the 1.0225 level. Therefore during the early New York session we could observe continuation of the bullish mood and price reached 1.0245 level (daily high).The USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold at this level and price started pushing lower in the second half of the NY session. Today during the Asian session price reached new 2 days low at 1.0155 level (100EMA support). Presently we are in the corrective 4 wave and I expect to see price under 1.0110 level today. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 61.8% of the wave 3, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci retracements (1.0053-1.0245) with Take Profit 1 at 1.0117 (50% of wave 3) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0087 (61.8% of wave 3). The resistance level at 1.0200 can be used as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to consider the data concerning the U.S Existing Home Sales that can affect the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance levels

(S3) 1.0113 (S2) 1.0144 (S1) 1.0163 (PP) 1.0194 (R1) 1.0225 (R2) 1.0244 (R3) 1.0275

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why Short positions at level 1.1165 with Stop Loss at 1.0200, Take Profit 1 at 1.0117 and Take Profit 2 at 1.0087 are recommended
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GBP/JPY Elliott Wave

The GBP/JPY pair has finished 3 wave (coloured blue) last week, and we could observe slightly upward move in this currency pair yesterday. During the European session price started an ascending move toward the 125.77 level where the GBP/JPY pair found resistance and stated pushing lower. Therefore during the New York session we could observe slightly bullish mood but the GBP/JPY did not manage to brake the daily high. Today during Asian session price broke 125.77 level and pushed to 100 EMA resistance. I expect to see price higher for end of the corrective 4 wave(coloured blue). In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 retraces 161.8% of the wave 2, we can define the potential targets with measuring 2 wave with Take Profit 1 at 126.98 (138.2% of wave 2) and Take Profit 2 at 127.37 (161.8% of wave 2). The resistance level at 125.00 can be used as Stop Loss.

Support and Resistance levels

(S3) 124.51 (S2) 124.85 (S1) 125.07 (PP) 125.42 (R1) 125.76 (R2) 125.98 (R3) 126.33

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave Rules this week the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why Long positions at level 125.80 with Stop Loss at 125.00, Take Profit 1 at 126.98 and Take Profit 2 at 127.37 are recommended
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The GBP/USD currency pair witnessed quick decline from 1.6120 towards 1.5730 during last week.

 

The GBP/USD has Intraday support zone located around 1.5740 - 1.5760 which prevented further decline showing significant bullish price action.

Now the upper limit of the Violet channel was broken to the upside Yesterday while Resistance zone 1.5840-1.5860 is still being tested by the GBP/USD pair which if broken will probably allow the pair to reach the upper limit of the Blue channel and the next Intraday resistance zone at 1.5940-1.5960.

After a bullish price action towards 1.5740, this price level is considered a valid BUY entry with tight SL below 1.5700.

Breakdown of Price Zone 1.5960-1.5940 lead to quick decline towards 1.5860-1.5840 which was broken too, leading to price zone 1.5740-1.5760.

Price Zone 1.5740 - 1.5760 corresponds to the lower limit of the Yellow & Blue channels and also to the Average Daily Range which was indicative of possible bullish retracement coming after.

The GBP/USD has shown extensive bearish decline last Thursday exceeding the Average Daily range breaking its Intraday Support levels indicating possible bullish retracement too.

There's a possible Head and shoulders being formed with head at 1.5730 which becomes confirmed with bullish closure above neck-line located at 1.5840 to be targeting to the price level of 1.5940.

Breakthrough 1.5840 corresponding to the upper limit of the Yellow & Blue channels will probably allow the GBP/USD to reach higher levels at 1.5885 and 1.5925.

 

Based on the previous analysis

The market offers a bullish opportunity at price zone 1.5777 with a tight Stop Loss below 1.5720.

TP levels are to be located at 1.5810, 1.5885 and 1.5925.

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The USD/CAD pair 4H chart revealed a strong bearish rejection of 1.0050, which pushed the USD/CAD pair downside towards 0.9990.

The lower limits of the Violet and Blue channels at 0.9990 were tested providing strong support for the USD/CAD pair.

Bullish rejection towards 0.9990 allowed USD/CAD to initiate a new bullish swing towards 1.0225 establishing a significant support level at 1.0050 and the newer one at 1.0125.

Retesting of Price Level 1.0125 will be also a testing of the lower limit of the Blue channel which maybe a good BUY entry then.

The Violet channel on the 4H chart is quite steep and narrow that predicted its breakdown yesterday, which is expected to reach Price Level 1.0125 initially.

 

On the Hourly chart, USD/CAD has been moving within the bullish Yellow channel, which has been broken to the downside today.

Retesting of the backside of 1.0185 (the backside of the broken channels ) opens the way for Price Levels 1.0125 initially, then probably 1.0050.

It's important to note that the pair has Intraday Resistance levels at 1.0200 & 1.0240 which shouldn't be bypassed today in order to achieve the bearish scenario.

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What the Bank of Japan was looking for with little luck though for a long time, using different artificial mechanisms, happened due to the rating agency Fitch Ratings. Thus the aim to devalue the yen can be reached.

The yen fell unexpectedly in the Asian session on Tuesday, a move that is maintained in these hours, when Fitch cut the credit rating of Japan, and the negative outlook of the debt situation.

Besides, the Bank of Japan will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to determine probable stimuli for the local economy, which could extend the negative sentiment towards the yen.

This has a direct consequence: the yen might not be sought as a shelter for investors, as has happened so far, and in this case the dollar would take more force. So far, low European currencies had a positive effect on the yen, which has strengthened immediately. However, such measures could have an impact in the medium term, as also happened in his time with the Swiss franc.

Gold also could benefit from a lower yen, and if so, the Australian dollar could be bought by the operators.

On another note, the rate of consumer inflation in the UK showed an increase slightly less than expected, but it served to derail the pound, which came with difficulty recovering positions in recent days, alongside the euro. The British currency is close to 1.5730.

The euro, meanwhile, fell back and in the short term trend has become bearish, but its low does not seem sustainable over time. Only the break of 1.27 could accelerate a larger drop of the single currency, which has more prospects for recovery in the coming days.

Similar scenario can be observed as to the Australian dollar, after the price made a pullback to a trendline broken on Monday. The Aussie could take hold in the coming hours, looking back to parity against the dollar. Its referent, gold, also trades with a slightly upward trend, despite the drop in the European session.

As the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, linked to gold, do not define a short-term trend, while the Loonie is somewhat weaker in the short term. Meanwhile, the currency of Mexico could regain some of its losses in recent days, that had taken it about 14 pesos per dollar. The goal for the day is at the order of 13.5350.

For the American session, the most important data to follow is that existing home sales, at 10:00 Eastern. No significant changes are expected over the previous measurement.
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The Australian dollar made a pullback from its trendline, broken on Monday, which increases the likelihood of take hold in the coming hours, looking back to the parity against the dollar.

According to the graph, we can see a figure reversal technique which is well known for Forex traders. Therefore, we recommend buying above 0.9940 with targets towards the resistance of 1.0130.
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The euro – US dollar pair is still trying to recover from the downward pressure, at the moment it is trading at 1.2750 below the weekly pivot, a daily close above the 1.2775 level will increase the likelihood of a growth to 1.2900. On the other hand, according to the Fibonacci levels, the euro can go back to 61.8% zone, we recommend buying at this level with a stop loss well below the minimum of 1.2645.

We therefore recommend buying above 1.2775 with targets at the first weekly resistance of 1.2908.
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Technical Outlook and Chart Setups:

The overall bullish wave structure remains intact as depicted above. D extension is expected over 1.5200 minimum. Please watch the 3 convergences above: 1. Past Resistance Turned Support Region (1.4800/20). 2. The inner trend line support passing through the 1.4800 region. 3. The 0.618 Fibonacci support at 1.4820. This region should produce a bounce in 1-2 days time. It is suggested to go long until the trend line is intact.

Trading Recommendations:

Buy around the 1.4820/30 region, Stop at 1.4750, Target at 1.5200 and 1.5400

 

Good Luck!
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Technical Outlook and Chart Setup :

As depicted above, it is suggested to note the dropping trend line resistance from 117.00. This line is now acting as a strong support around the 100.20/30 region from where prices have bounced back and produced a Morning Star. Furthermore, we bring to your notice, the Right Shoulder is being carved out at the same level, producing an inverted Head and Shoulder. All this is enough evidence that bulls are ready to take control back and extend it up to 117.00. The 100.00 level should hold now.

Trading Recommendations:

Buy around 101.20/30, stop at 100.00 targetting to at least 117.00.

 

Good Luck!
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