DH Unplugged

- Markets still unsettled

- Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)

- Consumer frayed

A New Closest to The Pin!

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Warm-Up
- Markets still unsettled
- Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)
- Consumer frayed
- Announcement #1 Closest to the Pin is a good one...
- Announcement # 2 New DH Shirts - attention collectors...
- March madness - BBall and Markets

Markets
-Worst month since 2023 - and it is not over
- USD is dropping - loss of confidence
- Gold - keeps shining - wow what a run!
- Revenge of the Dems on Markets? Tesla stock pummeled...(We initiated a new position on this drop - today)
- US Stocks - where is the money going?

Attention Collectors!
- The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by this Friday - March 21 above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000.
- Put your address and size in the comments

Consumer Confidence
- The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March experienced a significant drop, falling to 57.9 compared to the Briefing.com consensus of 65.6 and the final reading of 64.7 in February. This marked the third consecutive decline in consumer sentiment.
--- A year ago during the same period, the index stood notably higher at 79.4.
- Several key factors contributed to this decline.
-- The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 65.7 to 63.5, down from 82.5 a year earlier.
-- Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a sharp drop from 64.0 to 54.2, compared to 77.4 a year ago.
-- Inflation expectations also played a significant role, with year-ahead inflation expectations climbing from 4.3% to 4.9%, marking the highest level since November 2022.
--- Additionally, long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, the largest month-over-month rise since 1993.
!--The overarching takeaway from the report was that the decline in sentiment affected various demographic groups across age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty emerging as critical factors behind the drop.
Consumer Confidence
Private Equity
- Time Bomb Twitter post?
- Yes, agree PE is getting too mainstream and not a good amount of liquidity - not right for most investors
- Is it the next bomb waiting to happen?

HANG ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Jeremy Siegel is sayibg market could go lower (Tom Lee !!!! We need you!!!!)
- Speaking on current market conditions, Siegel pointed to several risk factors that could push stocks lower in the near term. Key concerns include persistently high inflation, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and growing fears of an economic slowdown. While markets have shown resilience in recent months, he believes investors may be overly optimistic about the trajectory of interest rates and economic growth.
- “The market has priced in a near-perfect landing,” Siegel said, referencing investor expectations that the Fed will successfully bring inflation down without triggering a recession.
- However, he warns that there are still significant headwinds that could derail this outlook.

Retail
- Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years on Sunday and blamed fast-fashion e-tailers Shein and Temu for its demise.
- The retailer's operating company is expected to cease all operations in the U.S. and has already begun liquidation sales at its mor...

What goes up?

Uncertainty - that word again!

American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly.

Back from India - Namaste....

Psychological Indicators.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up
- What goes up?
- Uncertainty - that word again!
- American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly.
- Back from India - Namaste....
- Psychological Indicators

Markets
- Follow up - "They call it dumb money - ruling again" - how did that turn out?
---- Quantum stocks down 40-50% YTD
- Billionaires - kissing the ring and getting rug pulled
- TRILLIONS (4) lost in market cap - in the name of what again? (MAGA?) Make America God Awful?
- Germany's stock market hits all-time high (even though economy is not doing well)
- President Donald Trump marked his 50th day in office on Monday. So far, the stock market is off to its worst start since President Barack Obama's first term in 2009. (Have to go back to Nixon for the next "worst" start comparison)

Monday Markets
- Worst day for the Nasdaq since late 2022 (-4%)
- Tesla plunged 15% - worst day on 5 years (Emperor Elon has new clothes?)

Market Update (YTD)
- NAS100 down 7%
- SPY down 4.5%
- SPY Equal Weight down 0.5%
- ! Russell 100 Growth Down 10.5% , Russell 1000 Value up 1%
- Cruise ships and Airlines - Down 20-30%
- Emerging Markets UP 3.5%
- European Stocks up 7%
- China up 16%
- Nat gas up 50%
- WTI Crude - Down 7%|
- 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are off 20% from their recent highs

Down from the highs
Smacked Stocks
Is This the Plan?
- Tariffs as negotiating chip?
--- How Is that working?
- Slashing Government employees and spending
--- Is this the Twitter Plan of re-org?
- Deregulation?
- Tax Cuts?
- Bitcoin Reserve (major disappointment?)
--- Just the forfeited crypto from criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings.
- US Sovereign Wealth Fund
---- Are they taking down markets to get better pricing to then prop up?
- Rates are Down - but not for a good reason (10Yr @ 4.2%)
- - Recession concerns are growing

When will Fed step in to save the day?
--- Fed has taken harder stance - but they don't have the backbone to stay out of it if markets cave

Crypto Check
- Not good
- Bitcoin - big bump post election and then faded - back to exactly where it was pre-election
- ETH - back to levels from Nov 2023

How are the Big Boys doing this year?
- Billionaire Index Top Movers....
Billions and Billions
Elon Update - TSLA
- For seven straight weeks, since Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C. to join the Trump administration, shares in his automaker have declined, closing on Friday at $270.48. It's the longest such losing streak for Tesla in its 15 years as a public company.
- Several Wall Street firms this week, including Bank of America, Baird and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Tesla.
- Elon was bemoaning how hard it was on him and companies right now....running them "with great difficulty"
- President Trump said that in light of this "boycott" of Tesla by the public - he is going out to buy a new Tesla this morning as a sign of support.

Quick AI Check - Tech Update
- Oracle issued quarterly results on Monday that trailed analysts' estimates, but the company offered bullish comments on its cloud infrastructure segment.
- Earnings per share: $1.47 adjusted vs. $1.49 expected
- Revenue: $14.13 billion vs. $14.39 billion expected
- Revenue increased 6% from $13.3 billion in the same period last year. Net income rose 22% to $2.94 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $2.4 billion, or 85 cents a share, a year earlier

Hot and cold openings - the best of 2024.

A real hoot to listen to our antics and shenanigans over the past year or so.

What food are they discussing or what hot stock may be on the list? All here on this Best-Of Show, produced by Ryan Rediske!

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The Winner for
ORACLE (ORCL)

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirt!

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad

Retail sales - not a happy number for January

News on GameStop

DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling)

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up
- CPI comes in HOT, PPI not as bad
- Retail sales - not a happy number for January
- News on GameStop
- - DOGE is full attack mode (Dismantling)
- The Winner of the ORCL CTP

Markets
- The call it dumb money - ruling again
- More earnings - driving markets
- Buying holding tight - tariffs are not worrisome|
- Intel parts up for grabs?

Retail Sales
- According to reports: Consumers sharply curtailed their spending in January, indicating a potential weakening in economic growth ahead, according to a Commerce Department report last Friday.
- Retail sales slipped 0.9% for the month from an upwardly revised 0.7% gain in December, even worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.2% decline. The sales totals are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation for a month in which prices rose 0.5%.
- Excluding autos, prices fell 0.4%, also well off the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase.
- A "control" measure that strips out several nonessential categories and figures directly into calculations for gross domestic product fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised increase of 0.8%.

Other Economics
- In other economic news Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that import prices accelerated 0.3% in January, in line with expectations for the largest one-month move since April 2024. On a year-over-year basis, import prices increased 1.9%.
- Fuel prices increased 3.2% on the month, also the biggest gain since April 2024. Food, feed and beverage costs rose 0.2% following a 3% surge in December.
- Export prices also increased, rising 1.3%.

Back to Work
- President Trump was very vocal about people who work from home. Said they they are really not working
- “I happen to be a believer that you have to go to work. I don’t think you can work from home.
- “Nobody’s going to work from home, they’re going to be going out, they’re gonna play tennis, they’re gonna play golf. They’re gonna do a lot of things—they’re not working.”
--- Question: Doesn't President Trump work from home?
-----JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon scorned calls from some employees to soften the bank's five-day return-to-office policy in an animated town hall meeting last week, according to a recording reviewed by Reuters.
- Employees at the largest U.S. bank have complained on internal message boards and chats about losing hybrid working arrangements, and one group launched an online petition urging Dimon to reconsider.

Unions - NOPE
- Amazon workers at a facility near Raleigh, North Carolina, overwhelmingly voted against unionizing on Saturday.
- Of the 3,276 ballots cast, there were 2,447 votes opposing the union and 829 in favor, according to Carolina Amazonians United for Solidarity and Empowerment (CAUSE), the group seeking to represent workers. The results still need to be certified by the National Labor Relations Board.
China - Tariffs of their own
- China's finance ministry said Tuesday it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment and certain cars, starting Feb. 10.
- The tariffs announcement comes as the additional 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports came into effect on Tuesday stateside.

Speaking of Tariffs
Reciprocal Tariffs - what are they? . Essentially, it's a "tit-for-tat" approach to trade: if Country A charges a 10% tariff on goods from Country B, then Country B will impose a 10% tariff on goods from Country A
- President Trump recently signed a memorandum directing...

Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President?

Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes.

Economics and the latest employment report.

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Warm-Up
- Wax off Wax On - Waffling - Mr. Miyagi President?
- Government Cuts - Lots of Bye-Bye Notes
- Economics are in.... People happy and not happy
- Musk - let's talk about this ....
- Praying for the turtles...

Markets
- Lots of Tumult - confusion but still a retail bid
- Inflation numbers are not worrying (to some)
- Employment Report
- CPI Due this week
- Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

The Karate Kid: Danielson - Wax On Wax off
- Trump 2.0: President Miyagi: tariffs on, tariffs off (used to be called waffling)
- Mexico and Canada Tarrifs are postponed for a month after "phone calls" from Trudeau and Sheinbaum
- China 10% tariffs and now China retaliates
--- Supposedly there is a call set up between Trump and XI in the next few days

Economics
- ADP: Private sector companies added more jobs than expected in January
-- Companies created a net 183,000 jobs on the month, slightly more than the 176,000 in December
---Pay for workers who stayed in their jobs grew at a 4.7% annual rate
- BLS Payrolls: 143k Added, (shy of estimates)
---- URate 4%
----Avg Hourly Earnings kick up to 0.5% MoM
- - - UMICH for Feb - 67.8 (DOWN from 70.1
- ISM Serices 52.8, down slightly from prior month

Color on Confidence numbers
- Lots of concern over the potential for inflation in the UMich report
--- Biggest issue is the worry about the tariffs and how they may impact prices

Earnings:
- The S&P 500 is reporting a 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 2024, which is the highest growth rate reported in three years
- 77% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above estimates, which is equal to the 5-year average but above the 10-year average
- The Financials, Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are reporting double-digit earnings growth
- Starting to seeing some issues in the BIG tech sector - that is why all of a sudden we are also seeing layoffs - expense cutting (although no cuts to cap ex at this point)

Earnings
- Amazon prelim Q4 $1.86 vs $1.49 FactSet Consensus; revs $187.79 mln vs $187.31 bln FactSet Consensus
- AWS segment sales rose 18.9% yr/yr to $28.79 bln
- Q4 operating income of $21.2 bln vs prior guidance of $16-20 bln; guides to Q1 operating income of $14-18 bln
- Amazon sees Q1 revs $151.0-155.5 bln vs $158.56 bln FactSet Consensus
----Amazon expects $100 billion of capex in 2025 on 'once-in-a-lifetime' AI opportunity

More Earnings
- Alphabet shares fell more than 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that missed on revenue expectations and announced more artificial intelligence investments.
- Earnings per share for the Google parent company beat analysts' estimates by two cents.
- Revenue: $96.47 billion vs. $96.56 billion expected by LSEG
- Earnings per share: $2.15 vs. $2.13 expected by LSEG

Even More Earnings
- Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street expectations for sales and earnings, but the stock fell about 5% in extended trading as the company missed estimates in its key data center segment.
- Stock kept of falling in the days after too...
- Earnings per share: $1.09, adjusted, versus $1.08 expected
- Revenue: $7.66 billion versus $7.53 billion
--- Clearly this company was way ahead of itself and proposing that they had AI chips that were potentially competitive to NVDA - BUT NOT!

Spotify

January is in the books - interesting outcome.

Let's work at Costco - wow!

Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future

Fed Workers getting buyouts

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Warm-Up
- January is in the books - interesting outcome
- Let's work at Costco - wow!
- Fed is out with their rate plan - not confident in the future
- Fed Workers getting buyouts
- The latest from the Just Kidding department...

Markets
- Investors Betting Trump will soften his stance on Tariffs
- Trump playing chicken on weekends that other countries will bend
- Some recovery after last Monday's beating
- But the questions is - how long until global upheaval with all of these threats and bashing?

Tariffs - Threats to Canada and Mexico
- 25% across the board on Canada and Mexico
- 10% in China
- Blaming immigration, drugs and trade imbalance
--- Oil could become an issue with Canada as they send us cheaper (dirty crude) - but several regions could see higher prices by 20% if these tariffs stick
- After the close - Trump said at the White House Friday he would 'absolutely' put tariffs on the nation's EU allies.
- 'You want the truthful answer or should I give you a political answer?' Trump said when asked about it – underlying his commitment to the issue. He said the tariffs on the EU would be 'very substantial,' without providing details.
- Markets closed in the red Friday on this tidbit
-------- Follow up - futures and markets off considerably before the open on Monday. 2%+ across the board. Oil UP.
-------THEN - A PHONE CALL WITH MEXICO! PAUSE ON RATES FOR A MONTH (10am news)

Bitcoin <$97,000 over the weekend, then popped back up
-- Again is this supposed to be a alt asset class or it is simply a risk asset now?

Musk has the keys
- The Trump administration has approved plans to grant Treasury officials affiliated with Elon Musk’s team access to the federal system that handles trillions of dollars in payments, according to two people familiar with the situation.
- Senator Warren is apoplectic

Tesla also not thrilled
- CFO "Over the years we've tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses," Taneja said. He said the "imposition of tariffs" would "have an impact on our business and profitability."
--- Oh and Tesla's earnings were uninspiring. Big drop in sales and profitability
---- HOWEVER - Musk and team promised that a cheaper car will be coming this year and that left the carrot dangling for investors

General market update for January - Internal notes
- The U.S. markets finished the month on a downturn as news of upcoming tariffs triggered renewed market concerns. January proved to be a volatile month, marked by a record-high closing for the S&P 500®, followed by a steep decline after the release of a new AI model from China caused global turbulence. Despite this, robust earnings reports and strong consumer spending helped the S&P 500 end the month with a 3% gain.
- Mid-cap and small-cap stocks outshone their larger counterparts, with the S&P MidCap 400® and S&P SmallCap 600® rising 4% and 3%, respectively. Investors remained cautious due to ongoing uncertainties about Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflation.
- Most sectors saw gains in January, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials leading the charge. Information Technology was the sole underperformer, declining 3% due to AI-related challenges.
- In January, most sectors experienced gains, with Communication Services, Health Care, and Financials at the forefront. The only sector to underperform was Information Technology,

The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness

Hard rug pull?

Tariffs - giving out like candy

TikTok Saga continues - with a twist

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Warm-Up
- The Impact of Flagrant Braggadociousness
- Hard rug pull?
- Tariffs - giving out like candy
- TikTok Saga continues - with a twist

Markets
- Deflating Stocks - Thread Pull (Before the rug pull)
- Monday Mayhem - S&P 500 down 1.9%, Equal Weighted down 0.35% - DEEPSeek
- Tuesday - plenty of buyers stepping in ....
- Staples, Banks are in favor all of a sudden...

ANNOUNCING a New CTP!

$600 Billion Lost Monday - for one company! BIGGEST one day drop ever!

Monday Markets
- News of a cheap AI model (program/app) from China hit the tape and it pulled the loose string and tech / markets felll apart.
- DeepSeek, has more downloads that ChatCPT
- DeepSeek's latest app comes just days after Mr. Trump announced a new $500 billion venture with ChatGPT maker OpenAI, Softbank and Oracle, dubbed Stargate, which he touted as ensuring "the future of technology" in the U.S. (Which is higher than anyone could calulate as the actual value- more like $60-$80 billion)
- ORCL -13%, NVDA -17%, AMD -7%, ASML - 8%. Nuke power companies getting squashed - NASDAQ 100 down 3.2%
- DeepSeek is also catching investors off guard because of the low development costs for its AI app, which Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives pegged at only $6 million. By comparison, OpenAI, Google and other major U.S. companies are on track to invest a total of roughly $1 trillion in AI over the coming years, according to Goldman Sachs.
- FWIW - DeepSeek excels in technical tasks like coding and reasoning, while ChatGPT is better for creative writing and conversational tasks
- Founder Liang, who had previously focused on applying AI to investing, had bought a "stockpile of Nvidia A100 chips," a type of tech that is now banned from export to China. Those chips became the basis of DeepSeek, an MIT publication reported.
- DeepSeek is looking to differentiate from its competitors with its reasoning capabilities, meaning that before delivering the final answer, the model first generates a “chain of thought” to enhance the accuracy of its responses.
- Question: Will this shed reality on the AI bubble or just a bump in the road?
---- Lesson: As an investor, be careful of the current administration's hype - we saw this last time and many of the "deals" never got done fully or at all.
---- In addition, DJIA was flying high as staples and other ramping. HD, CRM, JNJ
- 10Yr Yield drops to 4.52%

Hard Rug Pull
- Hard rug pull: The developers have no intention of completing the project and plan to scam investors from the start

In the End...
- The narrative with switch... Was: How great all of this as capital spend is going to be great!
- Will morph to: No need for capital spend therefore companies will have the benefit of not spending the money!
- The usual Wall Street Machine
--- Update: That has already started in the background. The idea that this is great as there is more competition AND a layer has been built that can support faster and cheaper build out of this AI .....

One More Thing
- Wang (CEO of ScaleAI) said DeepSeek actually has more H100 chips from Nvidia than expected — about 50,000 of them.
- At $25,000 a piece that is $1.25 billion. Sooooooo how is it that it took only $6 million to build..

Big Cuts
- The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide "deferred resignation" program if they resign by Feb. 6.
- Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30,

Trump-o-Nomics here we come.

MemeCoins making s comeback - then fizzling.

Pardons and Executive orders are flying.

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*** California Clean up - Some thoughts and companies... ****

Warm-Up
- New President - New Leadership
- Pardons flying....Even preemptive ones
- Another short-seller is out of biz...
- Talking bout animal spirits being unlocked as President Trump take office

Markets
- Coins - on fire (then pull back)
- Markets - Moving after last week's CPI print
- MemeCoins making a comeback
- Pelosi moving stocks

** Need a new symbol for the 1st CTP for 2025

PSA - Quick note - Next week's guest on TDI Podcast - Howard Lindzon - Founder of StockTwits
- Follow JCD and AH on Twitter
- Listen to No Agenda every week - double the pleasure on Thursdays and Sundays at 2P (ET)

Inauguration
- Any major takeaways?
- Trump wearing a purple tie - that does not seem like an accident
- Significant number of executive orders
First orders of business--- Energy is key area along with DEI, TWO Genders (only), Temporary pause on China tariffs, National emergency at borders, ending EV mandates
- National emergency: Borger, energy
- "That national energy emergency will unlock a variety of different authorities that will enable our nation to quickly build again, to produce more natural resources, to create jobs, to create prosperity and to strengthen our nation's national security"
- Opening up Alaska: "Alaska is so key for our national security, given its geostrategic location, and it's a crucial place from which we could export LNG not only to other parts of the United States, but to our friends and allies in the Asia Pacific region"
- DEI -could now be DOA
- Withdrawing from Paris clime agreement
- - - The incoming administration plans to review and potentially end what the official described as "discriminatory programs," including environmental justice grants and diversity training initiatives.
--- Retaking Panama Canal and plant a flag on Mars
-- Do we want to discuss that President Trump did not put his hand on the bible as he was being sworn in?
----EXTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE: For this purpose, we are establishing the external revenue service to collect all tariffs, duties and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our treasury coming from foreign sources, the American dream will soon be back and thriving like never before to restore competence and effectiveness to our federal government
- Vivek Ramaswamy is out as Elon Musk’s co-leader as he is running for Governor of Ohio

Pre-Emtiove Pardons
- President Joe Biden on Monday issued preemptive pardons for several family members, citing concerns that they will be targeted by “baseless and politically motivated investigations.”
- Biden pardoned his brother, James Biden; James’ wife, Sara Jones Biden; his younger sister, Valerie Biden Owens; Owens’ husband, John Owens; and his other brother, Francis Biden.
- “The issuance of these pardons should not be mistaken as an acknowledgment that they engaged in any wrongdoing, nor should acceptance be misconstrued as an admission of guilt for any offense,” Biden said in a press release.
--- AND January 6th "Hostages" pardoned

Tariffs
- Seems that the squeeze is on - 25% on Mexico (MexAmerica) and Canada (CanAmerica) starting Feb 1st.
- HOT FLASH - 10% on China starting Feb 1

Musk - Feelings hurt?
- Removing of EV mandates - not in his best interest.. Right?
- Could it be a swap for more lucrative defense and space contracts?

TikTok
- Goes dark for a little while over he weekend (Apple, Google remove app and offline on web)

People are catching on - Fed has no clue

Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility

Correction - could it be?

USA- Going DEEPER into debt

DOGE - already making excuses

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Warm-Up
- People are catching on - Fed has no clue
- Investors are nervous - lots of intraday volatility
- Correction - could it be?
- USA- Going DEEPER into debt
- DOGE - already making excuses
- Next Monday - Market Holiday and Inauguration day

Markets
- No happy - inflation and jobs (A 1-2 Punch for markets)
- CPI and PPI this week - make it or break it?
- Rates hitting key resistance
- Oil spikes - multi-month high

All of a sudden..
- Microsoft, Facebook and other companies are cutting staff again
- Talk of tough year ahead... What is up?

If they don't cooperate?
- Cut their pay!
- China is set to slash pay for staff at its top three financial regulators, including the central bank, by about half, as part of a regulatory revamp unveiled in 2023 to bring their salaries in line with other civil servants
- Starting from this month, staff at the People's Bank of China (PBOC), National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA) and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will see total income slashed by about half.

More China - Pull Forward
- China’s trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country’s stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector.
- Can it last?

Let's Talk Turkey
- Fed has no idea what is going on
- They simply can move markets, (equity and fixed income) by liquefying markets
- HOPE that they have the general trend and can regulate the flow so not overheat or overcool
- In reality, their forecasting tools are crap
--- BUT, focus on what they do, not what they say or their outlook

Employment Numbers
- Summary: Nonfarm payrolls increased by a stronger-than-expected 256,000, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, average hourly earnings growth year-over-year was a sturdy 3.9%, and more people were employed.
- Much better than anticipated !
- Unemployment rate drops
- So, we see higher prices and better employment - markets spooked that Fed out of touch
- One-Two punch for equities

Result
- Steepening yield curve

Market Sell-off
- NASDAQ 100 off 6% from the highs
- Big names down more (NVDA 13%, Tesla 18%, Apple 10%, NFLX 10%)
- SOOOO - Big Cap Tech is in a correction and dragging down markets
- Markets are in the RED for the year and unchanged/under the pre-election day move.
- More speculative (runners) stocks are down even more...

Quantum Stocks
- DUH!
- Sell-off deepened as Zuck cautioned that the potential is still years (and years) away (on Joe Rogan Show)
--- Zuck looking like he wants to follow in Elon's footsteps

Quantum Stocks
More Zuck
- Bashing Apple...
- No innovation, random rules
- "So how are they making more money as a company? Well, they do it by basically, like, squeezing people, and, like you're saying, having this 30% tax on developers by getting you to buy more peripherals and things that plug into it," Zuckerberg said. "You know, they build stuff like Air Pods, which are cool, but they've just thoroughly hamstrung the ability for anyone else to build something that can connect to the iPhone in the same way."

Oh - and this...
- Meta on Friday told employees that its plans to end a number of internal programs designed to increase the company's hiring of diverse candidates, the latest dramatic change ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's second Wh...

Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally

CTP Results are IN! Close race

Cocktails -> Cancerous now

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Warm-Up
- Grinch Ending .... No Santa Rally
- CTP Results are IN! Close race
- Cocktails -> Cancerous now
- New rules for medical bill deadbeats

- Markets
- Poor end of year - hard hit by Grinch - killed Santa Rally
- Gym parking Lots - Resolutions for January
- Yields starting to becom a problem
- CME Fed Funds Futures --> No CUT MAN!

Market Update
- December
Market Update
Sector Update
January Markets
- As expected, the start of the year is typically a time when people make resolutions they hope to keep.
- In the finance world, we often hear about returning to discipline, cutting losers, adding to winners, and adhering to all the fundamental rules.
- Additionally, at this time of year, investors may consider becoming more aggressive, less aggressive, more diversified, or investing in last year's winning stocks.
- These thoughts and actions contribute to market volatility, which usually fades away within a couple of months when resolutions are forgotten
---- Much like how the parking lots at local gyms are packed every January, but plenty of spots open up by March.

Big Issue
- The big issue we need to focus on now is the continuing increase in rates as the 10-year Treasury yield has now breached a key resistance level of 4.6%, which is significant.
- There are several reasons for this move, but the simple facts are that the economy is still growing and prices are on the rise.

ISM Report - Not Helping (From Briefing.com)
- The ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1% in December (Briefing.com consensus 53.0%) from 52.1% in November. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the December reading reflects services sector activity accelerating from November.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was a double-whammy for rate cut expectations in that the expansion in services sector activity accelerated while the prices index picked up noticeably, printing its first reading above 60.0% since January 2024.

• The Business Activity/Production Index increased to 58.2% from 53.7%.
• The New Orders Index bumped up to 54.2% from 53.7%.
• The Employment Index dipped to 51.4% from 51.5%.
• The Prices Index jumped to 64.4% from 58.2%.
• The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to 52.5% from 49.5%.
• The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 44.3% from 47.1%.

No Cuts for A While
- With prices on the rise and the economy in good shape...
CME Fed Funds
Nat Gas!
- Natural gas futures prices surged last Monday, hitting a new 52-week high following reports of a colder-than-usual temperature outlook for January.
- Natural gas February futures rose around 15% during the session after an updated outlook by The Weather Co. and Atmospheric G2 released Sunday showed that the temperature forecast for next month is expected to be colder than average in the East, specifically from Florida to Maine as well as certain parts of the Great Lakes.
- POLAR VORTEX?
- Already prices are fading....

Booze Bummer
- The U.S. surgeon general issued a new advisory warning Friday about the link between alcohol consumption and increased cancer risk, and pushed for policy changes to help reduce the number of alcohol-related cancers.
- U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said there is a "well-established" link between drinking alcohol and at least seven types of cancer, including breast, colorectum, esophagus and liver. For cancers including breast, mouth and throat cancers, increased risk may start around one or fewer drinks per day, according to his office.

Another year is in the record books....

Let's not forget about the not-so boring election,

Hacks, beached and outages and PEAK NVDA!

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Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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2024 - DH Closest to The Pin Cup - Up and Running

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new DHUnplugged Shirts (Designed by Jimbo) -
PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

See this week’s stock picks HERE

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Shutdown..... AVERTED

Mergers - Auto Industry big move

Lots of Trump Talk

The Market's new favorite stocks

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Warm-Up
- Shutdown..... AVERTED
- Mergers - Auto Industry big move
- Lots of Trump Talk
- Deli Stock Scheme - Update
- Holiday Tidings!

- Markets
- S&P 500 Equal weight down 6% MTD, Small Caps down 8%
- The New favs? Quantum Computing Stocks - Santa Like them.....
- Index inclusion has become a thing

Checking out the early CTP Cup Standings

EVERYONE IS IN! - 7 Contestants....

Fed Meeting Dec 18th
- Fed freaked out markets
- All of a sudden they are projecting that inflation is not going to come down to their 2% level into 2026
- DJIA was donw 1000 points and it was an ugly day overall.
- Onc day later, PCE comes out not too far aay from assumptions and market takes off
- Just goes to show that

DJIA - Records?
- Follow up - it was 10 days and the last time that happened was 1974

Meanwhile - XMAS Rally
- Once big day down, then a test and BOUNCE
- Most of the Fed Day losses have been wipe out - still much damage in December
--- Once again - Mega cap holding things up
---- EVEN though 10Yr >4.6% - this is an important price point... Failed couple of times before.

Quantum Computing Stocks
- Ever since Alphabet (Google) announced that they made progress, been some crazy moves on a few names - with YTD returns
-- D-Wave Quantum Inc QBTS (825%)
-- Rigetti Computing Inc RGTI (1,050%)
-- Quantum Computing Inc QUBT (1,900%)
-- Defiance Quantum ETF QTUM (51%)
-- IONQ Inc IONQ (240%)
---(none seem to be making any money - actually losing a ton)

More Quantum
- Willow's speed is almost incomprehensible — according to Google, it's able to perform a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today's fastest supercomputers 10 septillion years to solve. Ten septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
- Concern has turned to the potential for this technology to break down crypto (or other) cryptography.
--- It may take years - but this could be something we need to watch as a byproduct, the need for better security from quantum hacks

Auto Merger
- Japanese automakers Nissan and Honda on Monday announced they had entered into official talks to merge and create the world's third-largest automaker by sales.
- The deal would aim to share intelligence and resources and deliver economies of scale and synergies while protecting both brands
- Nissan's strategic partner Mitsubishi has been offered the chance to join the new group and will take a decision by the end of January 2025.
- Lots of things to iron out before this deal gets done

Index Traders - Hang on...
- Huge moves to reset these days
- Companies are competing to get to NASDAQ and NYSE to gain inclusion as they know share prices will potentially pop
- Palatntir is banking on that as they said in their recent announcement and one reason was to get inclusion in the NASDAQ 100
- These kind of index changes has buig impacts on stocks
- - ALSO, there should be some movement over the next month as there will be re-balancing going on as 2024 big run for markets/stocks

Trump Talk/Plans
- Trump said he will not let the canal fall into the 'wrong hands'
- Trump accused Panama of charging excessive fees to use the canal
- Panama's President Mulino defends canal's independence and fees
- US handed over control of the canal in 1999
- Talk that we could take it back
- Twitter: "Every square meter of the Panama Canal and the surrounding area belongs to Panama and will c...

Kissing Ass is good for the wallet

Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision

Time's Person of the Year!

Whistleblower found dead

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Warm-Up
- Kissing Ass is good for the wallet
- Fed is about to meet and make a rate decision
- Person of the Year!
- Whistleblower found dead

- Markets
- Odd - DJIA down for 7 days, NASDAQ can't be stopped (TSLA pushing this time - once again a reason to look at market cap weightings)
- Fanning the flames - A new name into NASDAQ 100
- Earnings - A few interesting data points
- Social Security benefits increase
- Yes and No, Inflation and No Inflation
- Not since... 2018 or 1978?

Reminder - the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
---Emails have gone out...

Fed Meeting Dec 18th
- 89% probability of a 0.25% rate cut
- Fed has its back to the wall - markets are dictating
- No reason to believe that they need a cut, although the would not want to worry markets or surprise them in any way
- All reporting shows that they will do the cut, back off a little as to the amount of potential cuts coming in recognition of the fact that the economy is still running well

DJIA - Records?
- The DJIA has been down for 8 days in a row and that has not happened since 2018.
- If the DJIA declines today, that would take us back to the 1970's, 1978 to be exact when there was a 9 day decline.
- But, that is the DJIA, the NASDAQ an SP500 have been holding up.
- Moreover, the fall for the DJIA this month is less that 3%, so not much damage done to the index itself.

Another Sinkhole Warning
- SP500 equal weighted is down more than 3% for the MTD.
- SP500 up slightly MTD
- NASDAQ 100 up moer than 5%
- Small-caps down 3%

BUT - Wait....
- A measure of wholesale price rose more than expected in November, adding fuel to the belief that progress in bringing down inflation has slowed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
- On an annual basis, PPI rose 3%, the biggest advance since February 2023.
- This is after an inline CPI number.
- Rates are on the rise for bonds, as expected
--- Mark this date - inflation could make a comeback in 2025 and totally offside the fed (And they are fanning the flames )

AND Consumers are Spending
- November Retail Sales 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus; prior revised to 0.5% from 0.4%

But - ISM Composite - Rolling Over
ISM Composite
CHIPS
- Shares of Broadcom popped more than 21% Friday morning, pushing the company’s market cap beyond $1 trillion for the first time. It will be Broadcom’s best trading day on record if the move holds until the closing bell.
The move comes after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations for earnings and showed strong artificial intelligence revenue growth.
- Broadcom reported $14.05 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, up 51% year over year but shy of the $14.09 billion expected by analysts according to LSEG. In Broadcom’s semiconductor solutions group, which includes its AI chips, revenue increased 12% to $8.23 billion from $8.03 billion a year ago.

More Chips
- US planning on restricting AI Chips around the world
- Planning on closing China's backdoor access
-Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing
- NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL, AMD, INTC, SMH

Nuclear - getting some traction
- SMRs - Small Nuclear Reactors
- Small modular reactors,

Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops

Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps

HUGE Baseball Deal

Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout?

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Warm-Up
- Big - Run - Crypto Pops and Drops
- Stacking the Admin with $$$ Peeps
- Baseball Deal
- Equifax Class Action - Finally a payout?

Markets
- Employment Report
- This week's CPI and PPI Data
- Santa Rally - Could be just be a couple weeks away

- - Trump Limericks (AI)

ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)
---Emails have gone out...

Regarding AMD
- BofA Securities downgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to Neutral from Buy, lower CY25/26 pf-EPS by 6%/8%ta $4.43/55.51, about -13%/-23% below consensus 55.09/57.11. Two factors:
1) Higher competitive risks in Al against best-of-breed NVDA's dominance, and growing cloud preference for custom chips from MRVL/AVGO. limiting AMD's market share gain potential, and
2) Potential for 1H'25E PC processor correction, after ~4O% HoH surge in AMD's 2H'24E client PC sales. Shares are down 3%.

Oracle Earnings
- Oracle (ORCL -8%) is lower following its Q2 (Nov) earnings report last night.
- The company reported a slight EPS miss, its second miss in the past three quarters.
- Revenue rose 8.6% yr/yr to $14.06 bln, but that was also a bit light of analyst expectations.
- The Q3 (Feb) adjusted EPS guidance of $1.47-1.51 was also lower than expected.
- Oracle guided to Q3 revs of +7-9% (+9-11% CC), which we compute as $14.21-14.48 bln, which was also light, partly due to FX.

Google Chip
- Releases the Willow quantum computing chip
- Google has unveiled a new chip which it claims takes five minutes to solve a problem that would currently take the world's fastest super computers ten septillion – or 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years – to complete.
- However experts say Willow is, for now, a largely experimental device, meaning a quantum computer powerful enough to solve a wide range of real-world problems is still years - and billions of dollars - away.

MLB Deal
- The Mets on Sunday agreed to sign Juan Soto to a 15-year, $765 million contract, multiple sources said, by far the largest pact in Major League Baseball history.
- The deal, which the Mets have not confirmed because it’s pending a physical, contains a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money.
- The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source.
- In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million
- Right and Left Fielder - with .288 Batting average
- In 2024, he hit 41 homers and had 129 walks. It was his fourth season with at least 25 home runs and 125 walks. That's fourth-most in MLB history, behind only Barry Bonds (10 such seasons), Babe Ruth (10) and Ted Williams (eight).

China - Back in the Spotlight
- Disinflation again and profits slowing - China's inflation drops
- China's producer price index declined for the 26th month. Producer inflation fell by 2.5% year on year in November...
- Sunday announcement - China's leaders on Monday pledged "more proactive" fiscal measures and "moderately" looser monetary policy next year to boost domestic consumption, according to an official readout of a key policy meeting that outlined upcoming economic priorities.

Very Business friendly cabinet

Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps

Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend

Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

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DONATIONS ? Thank you for all who gave to the Thanksgiving Holiday Campaign...

Warm-Up
- Very Business friendly cabinet
- Market rotation continues - now it is back into the big-caps
- Consumers - WOW! - Spend Spend Spend
- Black Friday and Cyber Monday updates

Markets
- November - the best month of the year!
- New highs and predictions for a 5% December
- USD is on the rise - bond yields ease.
- Bitcoin can't seem to breach $100k

ANNOUNCING the CTP Contestants for 2024 CTP Cup

Michael Bowling
Kirk Saathoff
Eric Harvey
Chad Laajala
Tim Dewey
Paul Kinder
Anson Brady (2023 CTP Cup Winner)

Saying goodbye to legend - Art Cashin
- Pillar of the exchange
- He was on the TDI Podcast - LINK

Marshall Law
- South Korean President Yoon declares martial law:
- Says through martial law he will rebuild a free and democratic country
- Government administration has been paralyzed because of opposition party conducts
- Says he will eradicate pro-North forces and protect constitutional order
- Marshall Law lifted - but a good amount of confusion remains

Consumers on a Rampage
- Adobe said that in the U.S., consumers made a record-breaking $10.8 billion of purchases, up 10.2% on last year.
- Cyber Monday sales reached $13.5 bln, ahead of initial expectations
- Quick Amazon vs Costco Story - Looking for UPS backup - Same model on Amazon (Cyber Monday Deal) $179 - Costco $129
- Buy now, pay later plans helped finance purchases, driving 8.8% more in online spend than last year
- But... Not so much IN-STORE: Overall, store traffic on Black Friday was down 3.2%, with footfall down 7% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the Northeast, 3.5% in the South and 3.2% in the West

Retail
- Consumer discretionary stocks are on fire
- People are buying - alot of stuff
- Abercrombie & Fitch issued strong holiday guidance last week after posting its sixth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth and another quarter of results that topped expectations.
- Gap issued good guidance as well
- RTH ETF - (Retail) all time high (Amazon, Costco, Home Depot, WalMart etc)

On the Other hand....
- Electronics provider Best Buy on Tuesday cut its full-year sales forecast as it missed Wall Street's quarterly revenue expectations and a fresh batch of iPhones and AI-enabled laptops weren't enough to drive higher sales.
- The consumer electronics retailer said it now expects full-year revenue to range from $41.1 billion to $41.5 billion, compared to prior guidance of $41.3 billion to $41.9 billion.
- It expects full-year comparable sales to decline by between 2.5% and 3.5%, compared to its prior expectations of a 1.5% to 3% drop.

Year Top Date Scorecard
S&P Sector Scorecard
AI
- Amazon announced it would invest an additional $4 billion in Anthropic, the artificial intelligence startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives.
- The new funding brings the tech giant's total investment to $8 billion, though Amazon will retain its position as a minority investor, according to Anthropic, the San Francisco-based startup behind the Claude chatbot and AI model.
- Amazon Web Services will also become Anthropic's "primary cloud and training partner,"
- Amazon does not have a seat on Anthropic's board.

AI - Immigration
- A signature campaign promise of President-elect Donald Trump is to initiate mass deportations of undocumented residents of the United States.
- At a Sept. 12 campaign stop in Tucson, Arizona,

Where are all the smokers these days?

DOGE - making promises.

We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise.

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Twitter - How you like the AI generated cover art? (May need to come to DHUnplugged to see all)

Warm-Up
- Where are all the smokers these days?
- DOGE - making promises
- High level indictment
- We are all turkeys - just gullible for every comment and promise

Markets
-#endthefed making the rounds
- Treasury Secretary?
- Target earnings surprise
- Black Friday - will that boost retail?
- New Phrase - Mullet Market

Thanksgiving - What is going to be on the Dvorak table?

ANNOUNCING the CTP Winner for Carvana

Mullet Market
- No, the fish...
- Steady benchmarks in the front, crypto party in the back

Netflix Again
- Netflix notches 70 million monthly active users on ad-supported plan
- 250 million subs and 70 million on ad plan
- Didn't we used to call this TV? Made a full circle except that ad-based also has a monthly fee
- Over 50% of the new sign ups are ads based plans

Smokers
- Retail cigarette sales in China have been growing for the past 4 years, reaching 2.44 trillion sticks in 2023, data from Euromonitor showed. The research group forecasts that sales will continue to increase annually, hitting 2.48 trillion by 2028.
- Euromonitor added that growth has coincided with the increasing popularity of "slim" cigarettes, often advertised as "low-tar," and various types of flavored cigarettes.
- Between 2019 and 2023, annual worldwide sales of cigarette sticks fell by about 2.7% to 5.18 trillion, according to Euromonitor data.
At more than 300 million, China has the most cigarette smokers in the world, making up nearly a third of the world's total smokers, according to the World Health Organization.

Topic of Discussion
- #endthefed
- Do you think that Musk and Trump and the new gang will try to end the Fed?
- Elon endorsed the idea of the President being able to intervene on monetary policy.
- Seems like that will undermine the independence and then the confidence in the Fed
-- Going to be some fireworks with Powell saying he will not resign and cannot be fired

DOGE - Dept of Government Efficiency
- Still a hardy har name - like saying Penis when in 3rd grade
- Incoming Department of Government Efficiency wants to create new mobile application for Americans to file taxes for free with IRS, according to Washington Post (Intuit and HR Block down on this...)
- Explain how a government agency that does not exist is making these kinds of statements.
--- Thought: Make these statements and either buy or short stocks? (Again we are all turkeys - hopefully not going to be led to slaughter)

Higher rates
- Rates are running higher after the election - actually up to the election ran up from 3.6% to 4.6% and nor in the range
- DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said Thursday interest rates could shoot higher as the Republicans ended up controlling the House, securing a governing trifecta that gives President-elect Donald Trump free rein to spend as he pleases.
- Pre-election: "If the House goes to Republicans, there's going to be a lot of debt, there's going to be higher interest rates at the long end, and it'll be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to that," Gundlach said
- If the Trump administration extends the 2017 tax cuts or introduces new reductions, it could add significant amount to the nation's debt in the next few years, worsening the already troublesome fiscal picture.

Yeah Right....
- Vocal critic of Putin, Vladimir Shklyarov, 39,

Wild ride for markets - election movers and groovers.

Fed dousing the fire a bit.

Inflation is still a thing.

Nuke talk again....

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Warm-Up
- Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come
- CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December
- More hacks that no one cares about
- Another big bankruptcy
- Nuke talks again

Markets
- Up and down - shine off that penny?
- Every pick / comment brings on new move
- Fed pours some cold water on markets
- Inflation - still a thing
- Something happening - only happened a few times in history

ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place

Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58)
- 60 million people "tried" to watch
- Glitches - system overload
- Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision.
- Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge?
- Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M

Follow Up
- Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26)
- As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year
- Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD
- Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done
- Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.

Once Hot -Now Not
- Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down
- Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off
- Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable)
- Could be kicked out of NASDAQ
- Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm.
--- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%)

Markets - Not Often Seen
- The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871
- The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40.
- On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator
- Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years.
--- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent.

More Cooling
- Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election.
- Day after it was up like 5%+++
- Last week, down 4%

Hack'd
- Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets
- Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies.
- Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies,

Looking back at some of the funnier and more memorable episodes.

Focusing n a few specific topics from years ago.

Thank you Ryan for putting this together.

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Thanks again to the great Ryan Rediske for putting this episode together!

This is a DH Unplugged chronicle of the rise and fall of the Facebook initial public offering; a cautionary tale of hubris and hype that ended with chaos, panic and scandal.

Episode 139, February 7th, 2012, the Facebook IPO is announced with great expectations. John C Dvorak, our tech hero, makes two courageous and bold predictions. Andrew Horowitz, our financial wizard, combines his unmatched insight with his extensive analysis skills to summarize the fundamentals.

April 11th, Facebook buys Instagram. John mentions a lost opportunity and Andrew questions the logic.

May 3rd, The Instagram purchase is analyzed further. Begun, the patent wars have.

May 10th, Facebook alters their S1. Pray they do not alter the deal further. John announces special Facebook Friday. Andrew foreshadows with concerns.

May 16th, The price rises, the revenue falls. John is cheap faked for humorous effect. Andrew offers sage IPO purchase advice.

May 23rd, John admires a Facebook hit piece. Andrew sheds light on some potentially shady underwriting.

May 23rd, Andrew shorts Facebook. John lavishes him with praise.

May 30th, John predicts law suits. Andrew senses foul play and greed.

August 1st, Facebook stock plays limbo; how low can they go? Guess who they blame?

September 5th, A major firm downgrades Facebook and Andrew predicts a short squeeze.

October 10th, Facebook makes the cover of Barons.

We join our heroes in the spring of 2011, discussing the potential for round three of the federal reserve's quantitative easing program to buy bonds and lower interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

Episode 105, April 14th, Morgan Stanley estimates US GDP. John uses the words "bull crap".

April 21st, The fed considers doubling down with a mediocre hand. Our dynamic duo sees this for what it really is.

May 25th, Andrew displays an exercise in mental acuity. John lands an impressive judo chop.

June 22nd, Bernanke to host an unprecedented "ask me anything" for his fans. Will it work?

August 3rd, John shares his take. Andrew asks an important question about QE3.

August 10th, Andrew analyzes an unexpected outcome. John says "interesting".

September 21st, Our beloved hosts argue about the origin of twist and shout. John refrains from using the word scam.

Episode 142, February 29th, 2012, Andrew finds a curious correlation. John offers a heartfelt apology. To himself.

June 13th, Quantitative easing efficacy is questioned.

September 5th, Andrew reaffirms Q E 3 still makes no sense.

September 19th, John gets an idea. Andrew speculates that the federal reserve indulges in recreational drug use.

December 12th, John tells a joke. Andrew says unlimited beer is stupid.

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The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)

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PLUS a one-of-a-kind DHUnplugged CTP Winner's certificate..

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

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Can we get this election over with already?

Markets pricing in a perfect gridlock scenario.

Earnings season rolling along - good and bad news for stocks.

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Warm-Up
- Yields - Highest in months - ahead of Fed decision (tomorrow)
- Drones - will they deliver?
- October ends on a down note

Markets
- Optimism (Hysteria) ahead of (final) Election results
- Oil on the move again - Middle East tensions
- Mixed results from earnings - but still a generally good look for the main players
- What does Berkshire know?
- Big DJIA Announcement

AH - Chili Competition this weekend - reining champion - have to defend the title...

Employment Situation
- ADP said private companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000.
- Nonfarm payrolls were up just 12,000 in October (Briefing.com consensus 120,000)
- Nonfarm private payrolls decreased by 28,000 (Briefing.com consensus 105,000)
-- These numbers were depressed by the Boeing strike and likely by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, yet with forecasts suggesting those influences could lop off something on the order of 100,000 positions, the view to October, coupled with sizable downward revisions to the August and September payroll figures, connotes softness in hiring activity.
- Unemployment rate stood at 4.1% - no change

US GDP
- Gross domestic product increased at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, below the 3.1% estimate and the 3.0% reading Q2.
- Consumer spending and federal government outlays were two of the biggest contributors to GDP growth.
- The release comes with the Federal Reserve poised to lower interest rates further despite the seemingly strong economy and inflation that remains above target.

Palantir Earnings
-Back-to-back quarters delivered beats on its top and bottom lines in Q3 and forecasted upbeat Q4 revenue figures.
- PLTR's top line continued to accelerate, advancing by 30% yr/yr to $725.52 mln, supporting its improving profitability, with non-GAAP EPS expanding by 43% yr/yr to $0.10. Total customer count continued to grow nicely, up 39% yr/yr and 6% sequentially to 629.
- U.S. government revenue has been ramping up in recent quarters. However, in Q3, the segment took a giant step forward, growing revs by 40% yr/yr and 15% sequentially to $320 mln, a seven-fold increase compared to the prior year and the best growth rate over the past 15 quarters.
- The commercial side was the showcase in Q3. Like U.S. government, U.S. commercial revs shifted into a higher gear, registering 54% growth yr/yr, up from the +33% delivered last quarter, to $179 mln

AMD Earnings
- Just not good enough
- AMD reported third-quarter results on Tuesday, with earnings in line with forecasts and revenue that slightly beat expectations.
- Here's how the company did, compared to LSEG estimates for the quarter ending Sept. 28:
- Earnings per share: 92 cents adjusted vs. 92 cents expected
- Revenue: $6.82 billion vs. $6.71 billion expected
- AMD said its important data center business doubled in sales for the second quarter in a row, but overall revenue guidance for the fourth quarter was in line with consensus expectations.
- Stock down

Microsoft Earnings
- Microsoft’s revenue grew 16% in its fiscal first quarter, faster than analysts had anticipated.
- Revenue from Azure and other cloud services was up 33%, surpassing estimates.
- Guidance for revenue growth fell short of expectations.

Amazon Earnings

Yields important again - rising and worrisome.

Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment.

End of month - October is about to be in the books.

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SHHHHH- Leaking some of my own news... eNVESTOLOGY moving to $25,000 minimum in 2025. Currently at $10,000 so if you want to get in to that investment management program with us for the current minimum - now is the time.

Warm-Up
- Yields important again - all of a sudden
- Hedge Fund titans getting nervous - talking bout a Minsky Moment
- End of month - October is about to be in the books

Markets
- Earnings season - Tech is about to bombard us
- Gold near highs as China and India buying
- Election Direction - putting money where mouth is...
- Consumers are happier - UMICH
- NAZ 100 - ATH?

Yields - On the Move
Yields On The Move
Auto Divergence
- GM puts out some good numbers for recent quarter.
-- GM now expects full-year adjusted EBIT of between $14 billion and $15 billion, or $10 and $10.50 a share, up from between $13 billion and $15 billion, or $9.50 and $10.50.
- This marks the third time this year that GM has updated its guidance after beating Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations, led by the automaker’s North American operations.
- Ford put out okay numbers, nothing exciting at this point - stock stuck in sideways action
- Big differential with stock performance over past year
GM/FORD YTD
GM/Ford Longer
New Threshold for Capital Gains
- Starting in 2025, single filers will qualify for the 0% long-term capital gains rate with taxable income of $48,350 or less and married couples filing jointly are eligible with $96,700 or less.
- Here is an idea - for low basis stock - possibly gift to non-dependents that have low income and they can sell at lower capital gains rate
--- Cannot do for dependents as their unearned income above $1,300 is the threshold.

Consumer Sentiment
- October Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final 70.5 vs. 68.9 Briefing.com consensus; October prelim was 68.9
- Markets reacted positively last Friday on this news.
--- Trivia: The University of Michigan (UMich) stopped releasing early versions of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) in 2013 as part of an agreement with the New York Attorney General's office. The university had previously received around $1 million a year from Thomson Reuters for this information.

Hedge fund big boys
- Getting nervous - Paul Tudor Jones
- The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates higher.
- Debt unsustainable and people just overlooking it
- "Will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there’s a point of recognition that what they’re talking about is fiscally impossible, financially impossible?” Jones said."
- Commented how both candidates are spenders so that is not good - however, hard pressed to think that many of their spending promises will actually go through.

Minsky Moment Defined
- A Minsky moment is a sudden, catastrophic collapse of asset prices after a period of growth and stability. It's named after American economist Hyman Minsky (1911 to 1996), who believed that markets are inherently unstable and long periods of good markets eventually end in larger crises.
- A Minsky moment occurs when excessive debt accumulation becomes unsustainable. Borrowers can no longer meet their debt obligations using their income, leading to a sudden decline in asset prices and a financial crisis.

Housing Market

There are some things we need to know about who is actually buying stocks.

Yields on the rise - estimate that they could be moving up to what level?

Big tech earnings on tap - how will markets react?

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Warm-Up
- Gold on a tear - not just gen pop buying
- Elephants buying up stocks - The BIG reveal
- Musk giving away $
- E-Coli Alert

Markets
- Yields cranking higher - steepening means....
- A bit of profit taking ahead of tech earnings (next week)
- More Tax abatements
- Markets look a little tired....

Treasury Rates
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.11% on Monday as investors awaited a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers.
- This is a far cry from the lows before the latest rate cut about a month ago.
- Elections and debt loads are weighing as are the latest strong economic numbers
Yield Curve
This too...
- The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday.
- The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion.
- Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023.
- Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level. (23% of receipts are used for debt service)
- The CBO expects deficits to continue to rise, hitting $2.8 trillion by 2034. On the debt side, the office expects it to rise from the current level near 100% of GDP to 122% in 2034.

The Big Reveal
- The central bank of the Czech Republic added to positions in some of the biggest tech names among U.S.-traded stocks, as well as increasing a bet on Warren Buffett.
- Czech National Bank Bought Up Palantir, Nvidia, Apple, and Berkshire Stock
- Here is my take.... (Central Banks reporting to other options as they are strapped and backs against the wall. They know they have enough firepower to pump stocks to try to dig themselves out of a death spiral of debt)
- Is it legal - yes. Is it good for markets, yes. Is it dangerous? Yes and no - if you can print money - who cares?

More...
Let's not forget about China rolling out $112 Billion scheme to bolster stocks
- China's central bank kicked off two funding schemes on Friday that will initially pump as much as 800 billion yuan ($112.38 billion) into the stock market through newly-created monetary policy tools.
- The central bank also launched a relending program, initially worth 300 billion yuan, that would allow financial institutions to borrow from the PBOC to fund share purchases by listed companies or their major shareholders.
- 1.75% is the rate to borrow and buy stocks

Revealed - Just a quick look....
- The Swiss National Bank has 20% of its assets in equities.
- The Bank of Japan buys Japanese ETFs as part of its domestic money market operations, but it doesn’t buy foreign stocks.
- The Bank of Finland does invest in equities
- Norges Bank, the central bank of Norway, buys stocks.
- Bank of Finland buys stocks
- Last quarter - Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion)
- - - To date, the fund has put money in more than 8,760 companies in 71 countries around the world.

NO TAXES!
- Donald Trump said he’d consider exempting police officers, firefighters, active duty military and veterans from paying taxes
- Why not just have no taxes for everyone?
--- UPDATE: Former President Donald Trump's tax r...

Bulls remain in charge

Data not important - down the road all will be fine

Seasonality - Race to the End

CPI and PPI - conflicting

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This week on TDI Podcast - Patrick O'Hare from Briefing.com

Warm-Up
- Bulls remain in charge
- Data not important - down the road all will be fine
- Seasonality - Race to the End
- Check the Podcast Cover Design - trying to do all from AI generation through end of year.
- Musk pulls a fast one

Markets
- CPI and PPI - conflicting
- Bank earnings - so far so good
- Fed allowing people to look past negatives - rather to opportunities ahead
- US Chips and Exports - roughed up market

Economics This Week
- Import and Export Prices
- Retail Sales
- Philly Fed
- Industrial Production
- Housing Starts
- Building Permits

Of Interest:
NY Fed says median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% at the one-year horizon, increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon.
- So inflation is a bit more sticky than

Recession - No Says Goldman
- Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%

Seasonality - The Race until the end
- Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur - so far so good - working just as planned. Almost...
- End of year from here favors the bulls
- Could have a few complications with the election right in between but electoral promises will be helpful for markets

Markets Worried?
- Biden administration officials have discussed capping sales of advanced AI chips from Nvidia Corp. and other American companies on a country-specific basis
- NVDA, INTC, AMD in the crosshairs for Middle East
- Officials are focused on Persian Gulf countries that have a growing appetite for AI data centers and the deep pockets to fund them
- The new approach would set a ceiling on export licenses for certain countries in the interest of national security
- ASML earnings miss (Stock dropped 16%) is a drag on chip/semiconductor sector

Fed Powers
- Former President Trump on Bloomberg interview says Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped rates too much in 2020; says a president should be able to give his or her opinion to Fed on interest rates, but he or she shouldn't be allowed to order it

ELON - Pulling a fast one
- Tesla had its Optimus robots controlled by remote at CyberCab event, according to Bloomberg
- Also, reports that driver-less cars controlled by remote drivers in India (or somewhere)
- Isn't that fraud?

Example of promises hitting the wires
- Former President Trump will propose today making all interest on car loans fully tax deductible, according to Reuters
- Former President Trump will also propose a 15% corporate tax rate only for companies that produce products in America
- Former President Trump will also propose banning all Chinese autonomous vehicles from traveling on US roads (Special gift for Elon)

Consumer Confidence
- Last Friday - confidence showed people less confident
- Inflation expectations lower, but dropped 2 points from last month

JPM Earnings
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported a surprise gain in net interest income for the third quarter and raised its forecast for the key revenue source, even amid expectations that US interest rates will continue to fall.
- Revenue from the bank’s Wall Street operations also defied analysts’ estimates, with investment-banking fees surging 31%, topping estimates for a 16% gain. Equity traders notched a 27% revenue increase.
- Official: JPMorgan Chase reported strong third-quarter earnings, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.50, beating estimates.

Does anyone care about the data? Does the Data Matta?

Port Strike ENDED - for now

Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida...

Employment Report Update

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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Reminder: Intel CTP is open!

Warm-Up
- Does anyone care about the data?Does the Data Matta?
- Port Strike ENDED - for now
- Hurricane Milton - Strong Cat5 going to hit West Coast of Florida...
- Employment Report

Markets
-Headwinds, Wars, Higher Rates, Higher Fuel Costs - Who Cares?
- Hurricane Impact - Oil on the move
- Yields moving higher
- Robotaxi Day!

Want to Bet?
- A federal appeals court on Wednesday refused to block a lower-court ruling allowing Americans to bet on the outcome of the 2024 congressional elections.
- This will be BIG - and a difficult thing to handicap
- Plenty of ways to eventually get into the betting craze 0 from sportsbooks to investors with binary style investments.
- Thoughts?

Hurricane Milton
- Nasty Storm hitting the Gulf Area
- Generac stock flying - up 8% Monday and 50% YTD
- Stock is down from $500 to $170 (from peak in 2021)
- Crude oil rallying - combination of Hurricane Milton and Middle East conflict
-- Follow-Up: Crude Dropping as HurcMilt not going to disrupt Gulf Oil

All Over
- Strike OVER!
- Tentative deal and back to work....after first strike since 1977
- Under the tentative new agreement, workers will earn a 61.5% raise over six years. That means the highest paid workers would make $63 per hour in the final year of the contract — up from $39.
- NO AUTOMATION - The union argues that technological advances could threaten the existence and value of union jobs, a concern that has persisted to varying degrees since the Industrial Revolution first introduced machines into the manufacturing space.

Budget Deficit - No One Cares
- The federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in fiscal year 2024, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
- The estimated deficit for 2024 was $139 billion more than the shortfall recorded during fiscal year 2023.
- Revenues increased by an estimated $479 billion (or 11 percent).
- Revenues in all major categories, but notably individual income taxes, were greater than they were in fiscal year 2023.
- Outlays rose by an estimated $617 billion (or 10 percent).
- The largest increase in outlays was for education ($308 billion).
- Net outlays for interest on the public debt rose by $240 billion to total $950 billion.

Pfizer
- Starboard Value has amassed a roughly $1 billion stake in drugmaker Pfizer, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Starboard believes that Pfizer’s current leadership under CEO Albert Bourla has stepped away from its historically disciplined cost structure and investment in novel drugs, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss confidential information freely.
- The stock is trading about 30% lower than it did in 2019.

Seriously?
- Two Democratic lawmakers are demanding that some of the biggest food and beverage companies stop engaging in “shrinkflation” — the practice of reducing product sizes while charging prices that are the same or higher.
- In pointed letters, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Rep. Madeleine Dean of Pennsylvania accused General Mills, Coca-Cola and PepsiCo of engaging in a “pattern of profiteering” through shrinkflation and by “dodging taxes.”

Employment Report
- Nonfarm payrolls increase by 254,000 in September
- Unemployment rate falls to 4.1% from 4.2%
- Average hourly earnings rise 0.4%; up 4.0% year-on-year
- Average workweek slips to 34.2 hours from 34.3 hours
- Yields Rocking higher - above 4% now..

Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)

End of the Month - End of The Quarter

Seasonality features the Bulls

Fed Limericks!

NEW CTP ANNOUNCED!

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Warm-Up
- Bulls and Bears - (TDI Podcast running now is Bull and next week is Bear - will be interesting divergence)
- Strike Update - could be an issue
- Another Strike - different kind - Israel and Iran
- VP Debate tonight

Markets
- End of the Month - End of The Quarter
- Seasonality features the Bulls
- Good quarter - setting up for more gains?
- Question - Capital Gains??
- Inflation (PCE) Update

--- Fed Limericks ....And another AI generated CoverArt - what do you think?

ANNOUNCING CTP for INTC

Market Selling Off
- Iran sending in missiles to Israel started a general concern
- VIX popped over 20 for a minute
- Markets down 1%++, but found reasons to try to come back mid day

Inflation
- Inflation moved closer to the Federal Reserve's target in August, easing the way for future interest rate cuts, the Commerce Department reported Friday.
- The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%.
- Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.

Euro Cars - Not Good
--- Blaming China....
- Stellantis on Monday trimmed its 2024 annual guidance on the back of deteriorating "global industry dynamics" and bolstered competition from China
- The French-Italian conglomerate, known for brands such as Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Maserati, warned of lower-than-expected sales "across most regions" in the second half of the year.
- Stock down 8% on the news
- UK-based Aston Martin Global Holdings PLC has signaled that it expects lower profits for FY24 due to supply chain disruptions and a decline in sales in China. According to its trading update, the company now expects its adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) to be slightly below FY23 levels.
- In addition, it no longer expects to achieve positive free cash flow in H2 2024. Following the update, AML shares crashed by around 24% as of writing.
- Stock down 43% YTD
- What about RACE, Ford and others?

China
- WOW - Best Rally n Monday since... 1998?
- Shenzen and Shanghai index up 8% on the back of:
---China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum.
- China's industrial profits plunged by 17.8% in August from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday.
------ That followed a 4.1% year-on-year increase in July, the fastest pace in five months.
-------Industrial profits covers factories, mines and utilities in China.
-- While the data was better than expected, anything that shows weakness in the economy will be met with expections that there will be more easing....
-- Note: FXI (Hang Seng, up 2% - Could be time for short on parabolic move??)
Hang Seng
Interesting Tape
- Headline at 11:30am Monday : Israel tells US that it is planning a imminent ground operation in Lebanon, according to Washington Post
- Oil is steady
- Markets turn positive
- VIX falls abit
- No fear of further escalation?

Asia
- Getting weird
- Japan's Nikkei falls over 4%,

Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)

Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump

COVID Shot Stocks - "fun" while it lasted

Confidence is waning.....

CHINA!

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Warm-Up
- Finally Fed makes a move (they will not be done jabbering though)
- Storms heading to Florida and Gulf Coast - Natural gas prices jump
- COVID Stocks - "fun" while it lasted
- Confidence is waning.....
- CHINA! Bazooka Time!

Markets
- All-Time Highs - Same saying Goldilocks conditions
- Seasonality favors the bulls starting next quarter
- Uranium starting to move as people warming up to nuclear energy again
- Trump Stock on the move

Need to Pick a new CTP

Exile
- A leading economist in China has vanished following critical comments about President Xi Jinping‘s economic policies.
- What Happened: Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was detained after allegedly criticizing Xi in a private WeChat group. Zhu’s remarks reportedly included veiled criticisms of Xi’s leadership and comments on China’s struggling economy, reported The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.
- The investigation into Zhu coincides with the Chinese Communist Party’s intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the country’s economic health. Under Xi, dissent has been increasingly punished, with critics facing imprisonment or exile.
- AH would be have cement shoes if this happened in the USA

On The Other Hand - CHINA PROP IT UP
- China said it will allow institutional investors to tap central bank financing for stock purchases and is weighing plans for a market stabilization fund, sparking the biggest rally since 2020 for the nation’s beaten-down equities.
- The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities
- The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, surged 4.3% to cap its best day since July 2020. In Hong Kong, a gauge of Chinese shares was up more than 5% intraday.
- MCHI up 8%, FXI up 8.5%, YINN (3X) up 25%

M&A FOLLOW UP
- Buyout firms Vista Equity Partners and Blackstone are in advanced talks to acquire Smartsheet, in a deal that could value the collaboration-software maker at close to $8 billion, people familiar with the matter said on Monday.
- NEWS: Collaboration software maker Smartsheet on Tuesday announced it would be acquired by Blackstone and Vista Equity Partners in an all-cash deal which valued the company at $8.4 billion.

THE FED
- Cuts rates by 0.50%
-- Seems to have been looking to appease markets
- Initial reaction was blah... Unwinding of positions put on right before the decision
- Next day stocks soared
- “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the Federal Reserve statement said.
- Last time Fed cut rates was COVID days , time before that was Financial Crisis of 2008
- The federal funds rate is now a range between 4.75%-5%

Meanwhile
- Consumer confidence in September suffers largest decline since August 2021
- The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' views of the current labor market situation continued to soften and became more pessimistic about future labor market conditions -- a sentiment that could weigh on consumer spending activity.
---- The Present Situation Index dropped to 124.3 from an upwardly revised 134.6 (from 134.4) in August.